re: A stock recommendation for the money board ... MICROVISION

Glad you guys are making money on a temporary buzz, but Texas Instruments has been on this for quite some time. The Optoma Pico projector has already been on the market for a while, and TI is making contracts with tons of manufacturers of small devices around the world.

There is no denying that there will be room for competition, but TI has a lot of muscle and dollars to throw around and they have been in the projector biz for quite a while. At the recent Infocomm 2009 (the largest trade show in the world for audio-visual performance products), TI introduced partnerships with Coretronic (largest DLP projector OEM manufacturer in the world) with Luminous Devices LINK In addition LG Electronics and Luminous are introducing new pocket projectors using LED technology (cheaper to produce, much longer battery life) LINK

Additional news: LINK LINK LINK LINK LINK

None of these companies are Venture Capital companies like Microvision. They have big bucks and the key business relationships in place. Sorry to throw water on your parade, but I don't believe that this is an opportunity that comes around "once in a lifetime".

your blog came across on my microvision google alert ... nice :

Zilla, I nomally srug off stock recmmendations from message boards but your analysis was compelling enough for me to check out MVIS's products. Needless to say I was impressed. I see these laser projectors as an option on every iPhone, blackberry, laptop, etc. I bought 10 lots @ 3.15 and will probably by another 10 on a slight pull back.

I called you a numbnut because you are being a numbnut. We all agreed early on that this board would not be used to pump up stocks, which is EXACTLY what you are doing. Again, pull your thong out your butt and move on.

So I'm never a big fan of a research report that claims a stock is down due to "market volatility and manipulation" especially when the company in question has negative $300M FCF. By the company's own admissions in their financial statements: they lack the financial and technical resources to compete, their profits are reliant on other companies to develop technologies that use their product. Plus they're having a hard time getting financing b/c their stock is so low and b/c they make no money. Also, they're considered a penny stock on NASDAQ until price is over $5 (which it hasn't been since 2005?) So until this stock breaks $5 and can be purchased by the big players, you're going to see small volumes moving it a ton. Besides that, their contract revenue for 1st quarter is 78% lower than last year, so if you're going to hold this one, pray for a quick recovery.

The tech sector is not my specialty and I'll admit I didn't take much time reviewing the statements or the products, but the financials look horrible. At least they're keeping costs down. I also don't know anything about day trading, but I'd guess thats the best way to get in this stock. But the first thing I thought of was an acquisition target. They're a very small company with negative cash flow, in a highly technical industry, and is having trouble getting financing.

I also have a tough time believing the financials, especially after clicking on the 21st century prosperity "research" report provided. This is as much of a marketing ploy as any I've ever seen. I skimmed through it and already most of his assumptions are wrong. They do have debt (.5B), the burn rate for last quarter was at $9m, not $6m which would give them only 2 quarters left of operating ability considering they have $16m in cash after Q1. Also, the guy that wrote this report, Jon Herring, wrote in Nov 2008 that the "Gold Rush of 2009 could hand you safe gains of 408%" and said if you buy his program ($295) he'll show you how gold could go as high as $20,000. Doesn't seem like a credible source to me.

But then again, I've been wrong before.

quote:

---

the optoma is a POS ... have you read the reviews ? it's basically so bad it's unusable ... the TI product is very limited in comparison to MVIS ... if you are apple or the like, you will not be going with a TI product ...sorry to rain on your hometown parade...if you want some links trashing the optoma or touting the technical differences between MVIS and TI projector I can provide them...

---

You are obviously sold on Microvision to the point that you are overly and emotionally connected. Move on and recognize that there is going to be very stiff competition in this emerging market from some very well funded corporations, in particular from Chinese and Taiwanese companies and that Microvision is no sure bet, especially since their technology is simply an iteration of some other company's technology.

Other "home grown" technology for pico projectors:

Syndiant

Other manufacturers:

bTendo

Light Blue Optics

Maradin

Micron

I don't work for TI, but I do work in close association as an industry consultant with many technology manufacturers from the US, Japan, Korea and China in the technology sector developing HD telepresence, 3D holographic and various forms of digital displays and wireless communications. Many of these companies work with TI in one form or another. My background in this sector spans 17 years.

Not to belittle Microvision, because they have come a long way in three years, but they face significant hurdles in cash, engineering and manufacturing prowess, not the least of which is the race by Taiwanese, Japanese, French, Korean and Chinese electronics manufacturers to develop their own versions of MEMS technologies. My reply concerning Microvision standing on the backs of others is that they do not hold the patents on the core medium used in their MEMS and that is the laser itself. Without Corning's lasers, Microvision is nothing if not another "me, too" company. Lasers can be produced by multiples of companies around the world and so it is no small leap to expect that others will develop (and are!) their own versions of MEMS and do so in a manner that is more economical and in collaboration with some giants in the industry. The first of these to land a contract with Nokia, LG, Samsung, Sony, Matsushita, etc.. is going to be the one to get a giant leap ahead of others. DLP is a technology many consumers already associate with and certain manufacturers of professional and consumer devices will certainly take that familiarity into account when making decisions about which competing technology to use.

TI is making significant inroads with existing relationships with Samsung, LG and Matsushita and Coretronic. Samsung has already produced a TI Pico projector, as has Coretronic (Optoma). My inside source at TI's DLP Division in Plano, TX met with me in the last month and showed me a prototype 3G phone from Verizon. He was able to stream videos from Hulu and YouTube and display these on the column by the table in the restaurant that we had in lunch in. It looked pretty good. Good enough to discuss business over lunch, which is what the initial first applications will be targeted at: business users.

My opinion is that Microvision is a company ripe for takeover IF (a very big IF) their MEMS engine is so significantly advanced and cheaper to manufacture than other competing technologies that they can offer value. Otherwise, I, unlike you, cannot see that they have the technology or capital to succeed long term as more than a very small niche company. Their market cap is estimated at only $150 Million and they have a LONG way to go in order to achieve that. Investment in it may in the short run, make a valuable play by banking on the excitement of those who are not as deeply involved in this sector as I am. Timing is everything.

In 2004, when a 2000 lumen XGA video projector was selling to dealers at a wholesale, delivered price point of approximately $2000, I knew that in five years that would be at $500 - $600. In fact, most AV integration firms that used to sell projectors as the most profitable component of a solution today make a very small margin of a few points, if that, on projectors, settling instead to make profits by designing and installing complicated control and distribution systems.

In order to achieve market conditions where the pico projector will be imbedded in consumer devices and sell the tens of millions of units that are forecast, the price point of the imbedded devices will need to be in the $20 - $30 range. With the amount of funding Microvision has used and the amount of investment recently made, before Microvision can achieve profitability they will have to make some serious contracts, both in the supply side and in the manufacturing side. I believe that Syndiant may beat them to market with a better technology through relationships they have to produce their silicon technology. Unfortunately, they are a privately held firm. If they ever make a play to offer an IPO I would jump on it in a heartbeat.

*edit: come to think of it, no, I do not recall having to focus it.

Without belaboring the details, the executive management team all come from within the industry with key business and consumer electronics industry relationships already in place. They are a fabless semiconductor company, with a manufacturing contract with a major semiconductor fabricator who has a well-established and reliable supply chain with more than 15 years of experience in LCOS assembly (consider the supply chain issues that Microvision has had with green lasers, as an example of problems Syndiant wouldn't have). Not only is their technology higher rez NOW, it is very scalable and they have the ability to quickly increase rez by reducing pixel size. Also, they can take advantage of LED technology instead of laser [where gov't regs will keep display brightness limited], while LED can continue to improve in light output. This is going to be EXTREMELY important when it comes to imbedding the technology in business laptops or other portable business use devices and digital signage.

Also, they are fully supported by several financial support and development groups, not venture capitalists, [who can yank funding and support at the first sign of problems]. This includes a recent $3.5M investment by the State of Texas Emerging Technology Fund.

*edit: what I'm telling you here represents reasons why the money board isn't a place to shill a stock. While Microvision has some serious support, there are numerous examples that abound of similar companies that had great technologies and a boundless future that ultimately failed. It's cool to discuss companies and technologies, but as for investing in stocks, it's caveat emptor. There are numerous companies and investor groups watching this sector closely and there are always 10 times more failures than successes. I hope you and others who purchased off your enthusiasm make tons of profits on your sale of stock but I am hedging my bet at this time.