re: 600 pts down? WTH is going on

quote:

---

You're little passive-aggressive smily face is itself laughable given you aren't nearly as knowledgable/smart as you think you are.

---

Bard is one of the dumbest posters to ever grace the money board

Its amazing how smart he thinks he is

quote:

---

Bard is one of the dumbest posters to ever grace the money board Its amazing how smart he thinks he is

---

This isn’t a dogpile. Take your shots directly at him…if you think you hold the high ground…

quote:

---

You were wrong and acted like a condescending passive-aggressive prick about it.

---

You're right. I was wrong in thinking you weren't so overly sensitive that you would take a benign response and turn it into butthurt rage-posting. I was wrong again to think you were adult enough to see how your misreading of my first post is what started this off, and that if I explained it to you then we could both just laugh off the exchange as being one of those miscommunications due to the strictly literary format of posting on a message board.

quote:

---

You were dismissed with 3 minutes’ worth of receipts, copy/pasted while taking a dump. That’s how dead wrong you were.

---

I was wrong again. I thought you were an adult. Only children type something like that.



After you've napped off your White Claw rage, if you're game to non-emotionally discourse on 10yr tails, auctions, MBS and how continued debt-creation basically mandates mortgage rates staying strong, I'm game.

quote:

---

What does the fed rate drop have to do with mortgagae rates

---

That's what I'm asking you. You were the big cheerleader for not just the .5, but a full point cut because you wanted mortgage rates to go down.

quote:

---

Go take a gander at what mortgage rates do after a first cut

---

Mortgage rates were dropping before the rate cut. Less than two weeks after the cut they started moving back up and continue to do so.

Sooooo...?

quote:

---

Its amazing you think I think the fed fund rate controls mortgage rates

---

Link:

quote:

---

quote:

---

Also will this (.5 cut -Bard) affect mortgages relatively

---

Pricing will get better immediately but will take time with more cuts to have a bif impact

But 4%s will be popping up soon

---

Another:

quote:

---

quote:

---

know the recent mortgage interest rates had already baked in a little bit of this, but do you think the rates will go down even more because of was 50 bps

---

Most likely but maybe not immediately

---

And another:

quote:

---

quote:

---

Why do that with possible rate cuts coming and likelihood that home prices drop?

---

If rates drop off the cut values will increase by 10% or more with buying frenzy

.5 mortgage drop equal 2.5mil.new buyers with a 1mil homes avaialble

---

quote:

---

Because inflation has been dropping like a rock

---

That's being a bit generous, don't you think? PCE went up in July before having a good drop in August, meanwhile Core PCE has been inching up since June (part of the mixed messaging we've seen from the data all year). During this, PPI did indeed drop like a rock, except that Core remains sticky above 3%.

quote:

---

Plus 600bil in Gov spending in 2mnths and Chyna. Sooooo

Yet despite that we will still get 2 more .25 cuts cause they cant control the 2 biggest parts of the inflation reports. If you knew how to read them then you would know

---

I know how to read the data, I also know enough to look at the wider picture and that's why I still think .5 was foolish and a pair of quarter points before the end of the year just adds to that foolishness.

Inflation is a function of too much money in an economy, rates are generally raised or lowered to combat inflation (I know unemployment is a focus as well, but if you really have to choose a primary it's logically going to be inflation). Since COVID, the consumer and the federal government have been on a debt creation spree which has created trillions of extra dollars (which created inflation, which necessitated rates being raised). GDP growth since COVID has been predominantly created through this increasing debt load (which is increasingly only being serviced).

Since COVID, we've seen 10yr tails average much higher and higher much more often than we did pre-COVID (which means the Treasury is having a more difficult time selling this debt).



As long as the Treasury continues having trouble selling debt, the 10yr is going to have to keep offering higher yields. As long as mortgage rates and the 10yr move together, that means mortgage rates are going to stay high.

quote:

---

This is true and we are seeing it. Did pricing get better immediately or not?

---

Home prices? Not really. Redfin
Prices were already dropping due to existing mortgage rates.



According to NAHB's most recent release, new home prices have actually increased since the .5 cut while existing home prices have indeed decreased.

Now if you're talking about mortgage rates, sure. And it lasted for all of 2 weeks. Your stance wasn't that it would only briefly dip then jump back up, it was that it was the beginning of rates moving back down and now you're trying to play linguistic gymnastics to avoid admitting it.

quote:

---

But 4%s will be popping up soon

---

Where? Nerdwallet, MND, Trading Economics, Zillow

At best the 30yr fixed dropped into the high 4's for all of a day or two after the cut, then proceeded to go right back up. Are you talking about special rates from some credit union or something like an FHA loan? Or something like a 10yr?

quote:

---

The charts

---

Dat mortgage rate drop, tho.