So I ran some quick numbers of the 16 games over the last 4 seasons that were non-CFP NY6 games.

The small conference schools have won in 3 of the 4 seasons thus far (Boise, Houston and UCF)

Teams that win these games average 9.5625 wins the following season

Teams that lose these games average 8.25 wins the following season.

25 percent of winning teams go on the win less than 8 games the following season.

37.5 percent of losers of these games go on to win less than 8 games the following season.

Another fun fact is that each season, a team that has lost one of these games came back to win one of these games the following season. Ole Miss lost to TCU in 2014 but beat Oklahoma St in 2015, Florida St lost to Houston in 2015 but beat Michigan in 2016, Penn St lost to USC in 2016 but beat Washington in 2017. Washington is only team that lost these games last season that are back in them this season.

This post was edited on 12/11/18 at 2:27 pm

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Posted by Solo Cam

Member since Sep 2015

32624 posts

Posted on 12/11/18 at 2:22 pm to Rouge

If we lose to UCF without their QB that UT game in 19 becomes critical to Orgeron's future.

Sorry, his immediate future.

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Posted by 225Tyga

Member since Oct 2013

15779 posts

Posted on 12/11/18 at 2:24 pm to Rouge

Analytics are great and everything but just remember that the ending scene in the movie Moneyball described it best.

When it comes down to 1 game, numbers dont matter. Analytics are great for studying trends over a period of time, but at the end of the day when it all boils down to just 1 game, Talent and superior athletes prevail. (Yankees beat the A's)

This post was edited on 12/11/18 at 2:29 pm

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Posted by dukke v

PLUTO

Member since Jul 2006

202635 posts

Posted on 12/11/18 at 2:27 pm to Solo Cam

quote:
If we lose to UCF without their QB

Well the backup put up over 50 against Memphis... This will be NO cakewalk... I think we go in uninspired and get our arse handed to us.........

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Posted by SammyTiger

Baton Rouge, LA

Member since Feb 2009

66344 posts

Posted on 12/11/18 at 2:35 pm to dukke v

I like To think we aren’t Memphis

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Posted by geauxtigers33

Baton Rouge

Member since Jan 2014

13734 posts

Posted on 12/11/18 at 2:40 pm to dukke v

quote:
think we go in uninspired and get our arse handed to us.......

Where is this line of thinking coming from? Lsu is playing in the best bowl game in 7 years and coming off a game the players felt they won but it was taken away from them. I think O gets them fired up and they come out ready to play. It will still be a tough game and they may still lose but it won’t be because they are uninspired.

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Posted by Allthatfades

Mississippi

Member since Aug 2014

6683 posts

Posted on 12/11/18 at 2:44 pm to geauxtigers33

quote:
When it comes down to 1 game, numbers dont matter. Analytics are great for studying trends over a period of time, but at the end of the day when it all boils down to just 1 game, Talent and superior athletes prevail.

Totally disagree. When it comes down to 1 game, anything can happen. If LSU played UCF 100 times I’d like to think we win 99 of them. But in one game, a lucky break here, a turnover, bad call. Happens all the time.

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Posted by dukke v

PLUTO

Member since Jul 2006

202635 posts

Posted on 12/11/18 at 2:45 pm to geauxtigers33

quote:
but it won’t be because they are uninspired.

We shall see............... Its a lose lose game for The Tigers... Win and we should have.... Lose and we were uninspired because of the so called talent gap..............

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Posted by Solo Cam

Member since Sep 2015

32624 posts

Posted on 12/11/18 at 2:46 pm to dukke v

quote:
Well the backup put up over 50 against Memphis..

Yeah and STM's QB put up 50 on Uhigh. Memphis and LSU are on different stratospheres defensively.

quote:
dukke v

quote:
I think we go in uninspired and get our arse handed to us.........

Well, there it is. Betting the house on LSU to cover.

This post was edited on 12/11/18 at 2:48 pm

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Posted by Alt26

Member since Mar 2010

28245 posts

Posted on 12/11/18 at 2:47 pm to 225Tyga

quote:
When it comes down to 1 game, numbers dont matter. Analytics are great for studying trends over a period of time, but at the end of the day when it all boils down to just 1 game, Talent and superior athletes prevail. (Yankees beat the A's)

And in non-playoff Bowl games is largely comes down to motivation. Who wants to be there playing and who is ready to just end the season?

Last year Auburn was good enough to blowout UGA and beat Alabama by 12 (their largest margin of defeat in a regular season game in 7 years). I find it hard to believe that UCF was simply just leaps and bounds better than Auburn. However, while UCF was playing for an undefeated season with a chip on their shoulder, Auburn was playing in the same venue they had just played in a month earlier. More importantly, the Peach Bowl was a complete letdown after being so close to reaching the playoffs.

Point is, Auburn didn't give a shite about being in the Peach Bowl while UCF was thrilled to be there.

That's why I never put much stock in bowl games one way or the other. Many times it's a matchup between one team that cares and another that doesn't

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Posted by lsufball19