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re: Why do the computers favor the Big 12 over the SEC?

Posted on 11/21/11 at 3:07 pm to
Posted by CajunFootball
Jackson, Mississippi
Member since Oct 2010
19432 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 3:07 pm to
You said OU and OSU lost to some subpar teams. I pointed out that LSU's two championship years we lost to some bad teams. I'll say that the teams we lost to we slightly better, but I'm not going to say our losses were any less of a "WTF" on our record then the ones by OSU and OU.

2003 UF ended: 8-4
2007 UK ended: 7-5
2007 UA ended: 8-4
2011 TT could end: 6-6, more likely 5-7
2011 ISU could end: 8-4, more likely 6-6
Posted by TriumphTiger
Alpharetta, GA
Member since Sep 2007
10401 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 3:14 pm to
quote:

Efforts were taken after both games to try and ensure that it didn't happen again.


In the sense of giving 2/3 weight to the human voters, I agree completely.

This year, the human voters appear to be amenable to the idea of a non-conference champion AND a rematch. IMO, it has a lot to do with it being the SEC, Alabama, and the score of our game.

The voters have twice had to give preference since the formula changes after the '03-04 season: '06 Florida over Michigan and '07 LSU against UGA.

It wasn't a slam dunk in '06. It was very, very close.
Florida .9445
Michigan .9344

When push comes to shove, the voters may give the nod to Okie St in spite of their loss. It doesn't look like it to me though.
Posted by CajunFootball
Jackson, Mississippi
Member since Oct 2010
19432 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 3:15 pm to
I'm willing to bet by 12/3 that OSU is #3 in the human polls which should push them into #2 in the BCS.
Posted by TriumphTiger
Alpharetta, GA
Member since Sep 2007
10401 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 3:17 pm to
quote:

12 of the games were against FCS teams.




The SEC should never play a FCS team IMO.
Posted by CajunFootball
Jackson, Mississippi
Member since Oct 2010
19432 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 3:20 pm to
We have to give our in state schools some love.
Posted by TriumphTiger
Alpharetta, GA
Member since Sep 2007
10401 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 3:20 pm to
quote:

I'm willing to bet by 12/3 that OSU is #3 in the human polls which should push them into #2 in the BCS.


If you give them Arkansas' ranking and factor in their current computer rating, they get a composite of .9252. Bama's is currently .9491. It does put them in striking distance.

ETA: If you assume that Okie St becomes the consensus #2 in the computers and Bama #3, those change to OSU .9285 and Bama .9457.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 3:26 pm
Posted by CajunFootball
Jackson, Mississippi
Member since Oct 2010
19432 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 3:24 pm to
They're 4th at the moment will move to 3rd after LSU beats Arky. They just need to move up in the human polls(which they will do with a Arky Loss, Stanford not winning its conference). It's going to CLOSE.
Posted by dgnx6
Member since Feb 2006
85181 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

Because outside of the top 3 or 4 teams this is the worst group of SEC teams in recent memory. Auburn, Ole Piss, Moo State, Kentucky, Florida and Tennessee are just dreadful Vandy is better but not good USCe is much diminished after losing Lattimore and UGA is feasting on bottom feeders He'll even arKansas has only one Top 25 win over USCe and that was after Lattimore got injured


True, but we are also a much better team than we were last year.

It looks crappy cus the top 3 teams are in one division. That is an automatic 3 losses for the other 3 teams in the west and a total of 9 losses on the east side.
Posted by TriumphTiger
Alpharetta, GA
Member since Sep 2007
10401 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 3:33 pm to
quote:

They're 4th at the moment will move to 3rd after LSU beats Arky. They just need to move up in the human polls(which they will do with a Arky Loss, Stanford not winning its conference). It's going to CLOSE.


I have to admit, this looks very doable.

If you look at the math:

Assuming a consensus at each position:
Bama #2/#2/#3 = .9466 ([.96+.96+.92]/3)
Okie St #3/#3/#2 = .9333 ([.92+.92+.96]/3)

If Okie St snags 25% of the second place votes:
Bama .94 ([.95+.95+.92]/3)
Okie St .94 ([.93+.93+.96]/3)

Has this been discussed in the stickied thread?

ETA: shite - it's in lsumatt's first updated post
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 3:35 pm
Posted by deSandman
Member since Mar 2007
969 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 3:35 pm to
quote:

How many teams in the Big 12 do you reckon are less mediocre than Arky?

Well, in the only example of SEC vs. Big12 that we have this season, the 6th best Big12 team (A&M) played the 3rd best SEC team (Arky) on a neutral field, with Texas A&M leading 35-17 at the half but Arkansas coming back to win 42-38.

SEC is better at the top, which is what really matters, but I think the bottom 6 of the SEC might get swept if they played the bottom 6 of the Big 12, and 3-6 from each conference would be a pretty close matchup.
Posted by CajunFootball
Jackson, Mississippi
Member since Oct 2010
19432 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 3:36 pm to
Yeah, and I think OSU can get those 25% of votes by beating a "good" OU team while Bama is at home.
Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
109357 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 3:46 pm to
quote:

Well, in the only example of SEC vs. Big12 that we have this season, the 6th best Big12 team (A&M) played the 3rd best SEC team (Arky) on a neutral field, with Texas A&M leading 35-17 at the half but Arkansas coming back to win 42-38.


Of course, that's been A&M's M/O all year (their games against OK St. and Kan St. were almost identical), so it's rather hard to gauge that particular meltdown in relation to any of the others (the first? and fourth? best teams in the Big 12?).
Posted by CajunFootball
Jackson, Mississippi
Member since Oct 2010
19432 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:33 pm to
I think we'll get enough support, or lack there of, from coaches and other voters who don't want it to be a lock for the SEC's 6th straight.
Posted by TriumphTiger
Alpharetta, GA
Member since Sep 2007
10401 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:40 pm to
This could be telling. The other poll questions had LSU-Bama as the highest percentage answer in various scenarios.

LINK
Posted by TigerFan55555
Tomball, TX
Member since Nov 2008
9827 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 4:54 pm to
quote:

On Rivals.com, it says Boise State's SoS is 14, while LSU's is 17... That will confuse me until the day I die...


r u serious....good god man, that is retarded...
Posted by LSU91MBA
Houston
Member since Aug 2008
1588 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:40 pm to
quote:

RBWilliams8
quote:

dk man, I loved crushing Florida, auburn, ole miss and beating Oregon and west Virginia by double digets. It's fun when it's a legit team.


Once or twice a year, I'd agree -- say Oregon and WVA... "nice" to see a bit of a blowout and stretch our muscles. I thoroughly enjoyed the 40-27 win over Oregon to start the year.... I did a shot every score vs. WVA and had a hell of a hangover the next day... so I guess I enjoyed it...

But against UF, AU, UT I'd prefer as a FAN to see a more competitive game.

My all time best games are:

1. 2007 LSU vs. UF
2. 2011 LSU vs. Bama
3. 2003 LSU vs. UGA
4. ~1996 LSU vs. OM -- Eli's Jr. year at Tiger Stadium... I think we won 16 - 14...


These were all awesome games that I was at in person... very competitive. There are a ton more that I saw on TV...

Bama and UF both last season
UT in OT in Knoxville
@ UGA in 2009

the BEST most memorable games are close... not blowouts. That's what I'm saying.
Posted by 7thWardTiger
Richmond, Texas
Member since Nov 2009
24670 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:50 pm to
quote:

ETA: If you assume that Okie St becomes the consensus #2 in the computers and Bama #3, those change to OSU .9285 and Bama .9457.
they already are
Posted by LSU Beach Lover
Member since Sep 2011
470 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 6:05 pm to
quote:

Did you play sports in a league that didn't keep score so that everybody felt good about the game and just played?


VERY GOOD POINT !!!! THAT is precisely what is wrong with a large part of our society.

Sorry....just an aside since it came up.........

Not everybody thinks that the SOS of the SEC is what it is. How many teams in the SEC were ranked at some point this season?? All but Ole Miss, Kentucky, Tennessee and Vanderbilt ?? Where else did that happen ....?????

Posted by 7thWardTiger
Richmond, Texas
Member since Nov 2009
24670 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 6:22 pm to
quote:

Not everybody thinks that the SOS of the SEC is what it is. How many teams in the SEC were ranked at some point this season?? All but Ole Miss, Kentucky, Tennessee and Vanderbilt ?? Where else did that happen ....?????
the Big 12
Posted by LSUDKG
Shreveport
Member since Oct 2011
30 posts
Posted on 11/21/11 at 6:25 pm to
quote:

I'm willing to bet by 12/3 that OSU is #3 in the human polls which should push them into #2 in the BCS.

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