The two tail-end outcomes for the game this weekend

Left-tail (worst-case): Alabama scores at will on our defense (think 38+ points min.). They stop our offense to a few more stops than we were expecting and we're forever down by 14+ points the entire game, trading TDs. Lose by 14-21 points.

Right-tail (best case): Emblematic to 2019 Bama game where we essentially score every single drive besides maybe 2 or 3. Our defense nags a lucky red-zone turnover and maybe 1-2 more stops than we were expecting. We go into the 4th quarter up 10-14pts which is essentially ball game as they won't have the horses on offense to claw back the lead quick enough. Win by 10-17 pts.

Average outcome: Something similar to the FSU game except they don't run away with it in the 4th quarter because their offense sort of sucks balls. So we keep it close, cut it to 3 with a few minutes left. Will need a Matt House stop. Then they'll convert some 3rd and 15 on some crossing route through blown coverage by Latarrence Welch. Ball game. Lose by 3 pts.


I don't think the offense needs to be flawless, per se. But they have to put up north of 31+ points. Then we nab one lucky turnover or stop more than we're expecting and the odds shift slightly to our side.