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re: The LesBechler Theory

Posted on 1/21/12 at 9:45 am to
Posted by YellowShoe
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Mar 2006
1383 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 9:45 am to
Explain that title, will ya.
Posted by Lee Chatelain
I love the OT!
Member since Oct 2008
11533 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 9:49 am to
quote:

So, Lee Chatelain, you peered back at 24 yrs of college football, about 2500 schedules, and you found FOUR comparable seasons.


He just asked for a comparable schedule, and I gave them to him. I didn't look through 2500 schedules, it was actually quite easy to find them.

Sure, LSU beat 8 ranked teams, but 2 of them really had no business being in the Top 25.
Posted by YellowShoe
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Mar 2006
1383 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 9:49 am to
quote:

An interesting and rather insidious statistic that may add support to my theory:

*LM seasons 1-4 bowl games : 4 wins 0 loses
*LM seasons 5-7 bowl games: 1 win 2 loses


Did the results come first or the theory? You make some supposition based on the results and then claim that results fit your theory.

Make a prediction for the next few years. Come back and test your theory.
Posted by tiger88
Member since Jan 2006
1041 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 9:50 am to
quote:

You just showed how exceptional Miles must have been to do something like that.


His 13-0 was an exceptional record.

But the 0-1, how he lost in the BCSNCG was so exceptionally bad that it calls into question how much credit can truly be given to him for the 13-0.

It's as if he acquired a great program (which he did) and hired enough great assistants (which it appears he has done for the most part -- with Chavis being without a doubt the best of them), but where HE is the weakest link and cause for the persistent follies that stymie the same system.


Perhaps *CLM is the weakest link in the system that went 13-1.



This post was edited on 1/21/12 at 9:58 am
Posted by Lee Chatelain
I love the OT!
Member since Oct 2008
11533 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 9:55 am to
quote:

CLM the weakest link in the system


Yep. Hire a really good OC, and let your really good DC do their job, and stay out of the play calling. Stop acting like Jerry Jones!

You walk up and down the field and close the deal on the recruits.
Posted by tiger88
Member since Jan 2006
1041 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 10:07 am to
Miles is a protege of Bo Schembelcher, a coach he played for at Michigan; Schembelcher, a protege of Woody Hayes, who was known for offenses that avoided the forward pass and repeatedly ran the same running plays.
This post was edited on 1/21/12 at 10:08 am
Posted by jcj
mississippi
Member since Oct 2011
135 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 10:07 am to
I agree he is the weak link, back when the bills went to the superbowl every year they had an incredible team and ML was a grrat coach but you seldom hear him talked about with the greats caused he failed to win a superbowl. Good seasons are great but if you don't win the big game who cares. Pats perfect season only to loose the superbowl is a good example.
Posted by tigersruledude
Member since Oct 2005
1491 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 10:07 am to
The OP...dude...that's pretty complicated.

don't ya think it's a lot simpler if you just realize that what really has happened is:

In 2008 the plan for QB development and succession for our offense had to be scrapped because a talented player couldn't behave himself. This caused two players to have to play earlier than planned and this combined with a poor QB teacher (Crowton) caused Miles to spend the last four years scrambling to find QB answers and fashion an offense that could function without dependable Qbs?

Don't you think that's a little more plausible?
Posted by tiger88
Member since Jan 2006
1041 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 10:15 am to
quote:

In 2008 the plan for QB development and succession for our offense had to be scrapped because a talented player couldn't behave himself. This caused two players to have to play earlier than planned and this combined with a poor QB teacher (Crowton) caused Miles to spend the last four years scrambling to find QB answers and fashion an offense that could function without dependable Qbs?


I hear ya, but, I witnessed a run of several games with my own eyes of J. Lee successfully managing the offense in 2011, only to be arbitrarily replaced with JJ. I saw this and so did the rest of the LSU Nation. *CLM took a huge risk in scrapping the balanced attack <-- I conjecture here and assume *CLM wanted a balanced attack. But the decision to scrap itself, is that something *CLM should get a pass on, knowing what we know?

We may run the table next year like a Roman army with Mett.

I may become coach and go for it on every 4th down outside the 30-yard line, redesigning football itself.

Randall could fit the bill for Miles's dream-scheme for offense:

-no forward passes
-option
-QB as coordinator not captain
-no need to recruit TEs, WRs, or Athletes for offense, just linemen and RBs



This post was edited on 1/21/12 at 10:32 am
Posted by valpeaux
Member since Dec 2007
481 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 10:19 am to
I like the run-first offense. But he is on record saying that he will pass more down field next year. Media and fans will hold him to his word. Next year will say a lot about his legacy here, probably more than any season to date.
Posted by tiger88
Member since Jan 2006
1041 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 10:25 am to
quote:

I like the run-first offense. But he is on record saying that he will pass more down field next year. Media and fans will hold him to his word. Next year will say a lot about his legacy here, probably more than any season to date.


George Bush, Sr. said, "read my lips, no new taxes". On record.

Les Miles (2011) on record said, "Jarret Lee will help us win championships". (So, JL being sent in to kneel it on the last play of the GA game was *CLM's idea of this?)

I wouldn't assume anything.
This post was edited on 1/21/12 at 10:35 am
Posted by valpeaux
Member since Dec 2007
481 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 10:35 am to
Well the offense worked really well until we came up against maybe the best run defense in CFB history. Then a little offensive versatility is in order. Unfortunately we didn't have it, and our inability to run put JJ on display for who he is.

I thought it was fitting that the first time we saw JJ in a game this year we had to call a timeout because the personnel wasn't set. Deja vu. I knew then it would come back to haunt us. In four years the guy still can't make a decent option pitch.
Posted by White Tiger
Dallas
Member since Jul 2007
13170 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 10:37 am to
quote:

I have to believe this because the alternative means I don't completely understand what I am seeing.


Another point concerning LM and Jefferson. Assuming that post game quotes of Jefferson are accurate, one cannot but conclude that he is immature and deficient in self-analysis in the extreme i.e. self-absorbed and delusional so far as his ability as QB are concerned. If one as stupid as am I can see this, how is it that LM, who was around Jefferson constantly for 4 years did not see it? This is truly stunning.

Further, if correct, how could any thinking individual, let alone a head coach, expect some one of such psychologically arrested development to discharge competently the offices of the QB. Again, I can only shake my head in disbelief.

How many other strange "personnel" decisions have been the product of LM's inability to gauge people psychologically? Let the Rantard Nation speak, if they dare.
Posted by Choctaw
Pumpin' Sunshine
Member since Jul 2007
77774 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 10:46 am to
quote:

Schembelcher, a protege of Woody Hayes, who was known for offenses that avoided the forward pass and repeatedly ran the same running plays.



then how do you explain Russel and Flynn throwing 30+ sometimes 40+ times a game?

if you can't see that the lack of a good QB effected his play calling then you're blind or just refuse to give Miles any credit or functionally retarded....or all of the above

your entire "theory" is flawed at the very least but more likely just wrong.
This post was edited on 1/21/12 at 11:07 am
Posted by geauxjo
Gonzales, LA
Member since Sep 2004
15166 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 10:54 am to
quote:

if you can't see that the lack of good a QB effected his play calling then you're blind or just refuse to give Miles any credit or functionally retarded....or all of the above


I'm leaning toward all of the above. How is it possible to forget the yardage JR MF and even JL put up his freshman year in 2008. His yardage gets lost in all the pick 6's. As a matter of fact, people were relieved to have JJ get a shot and try the mobile qb aspect at the end of the year. My how many forget.
Posted by tiger88
Member since Jan 2006
1041 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 10:55 am to
quote:

then how do you explain Russel and Flynn throwing 30+ sometimes 40+ times a game?


Both played before Les Miles earned equity in the LSU Bank & Trust, i.e. in 2008 after Flynn led the Tigers to the BCS championship (for the 2007 season).

*CLM did not dare rock the boat (i.e. begin to tinker and install the LesBechler) until after he had the job security (the "equity") to do so. This, to me, may explain the inexplicable decision to pluck a hot-handed, several-games-undefeated JL and insert JJ. Why is this so hard for some to understand?

The LesBechler scheme will fail if that's his intention next season, is all I'm predicting here.

This post was edited on 1/21/12 at 11:01 am
Posted by geauxjo
Gonzales, LA
Member since Sep 2004
15166 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 11:00 am to
quote:

Posted by tiger88 quote: then how do you explain Russel and Flynn throwing 30+ sometimes 40+ times a game? Both played before Les Miles earned equity in the LSU Bank & Trust, i.e. in 2008 after Flynn led the Tiger to the BCS championship (for the 2007 season). *CLM did not dare rock the boat (i.e. begin to tinker and install the LesBechler) until he had the job security (the "equity") to do so. The LesBechler will fail if that's his intention next season, is all I'm predicting here. He needs to let the OC and DC do their jobs.


That's the most absurd, biased, and totally off-base statement I've read in a while. You think just maybe he tries to run an offense based on the strengths of his playmakers? Naw....couldn't be that.
Posted by BeeFense5
Kenner
Member since Jul 2010
41960 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 11:01 am to
Your asterisk thing is getting old. It doesn't make any sense. You also have some of the worst opinions I have ever seen about lsu football.

You are acting like we just had the worst season ever or something. We just won an sec title and played in the fricking national championship game. Jesus Christ man. Get some perspective. You have none at all.

If you hate lsu football so much as you are displaying right now. Then stop following it and let people continue to enjoy the golden age of it.
Posted by Tiger Khan
Member since Oct 2009
2469 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 11:04 am to
quote:

Perhaps *CLM is the weakest link in the system that went 13-1.


The weakest link was the QB position.

I think the answer is quite simple:

1. Learning Curves. There are critical stages of development that IMO were either forced prematurely, abused, or ignored under Gary Crowton concerning the QB position.

2. Last year, the biggest liability to the team was Gary Crowton.

3. This year, the only real liability on this team was JL and JJ - remnants of GC's work. You just NEVER knew what you were going to get out of either of them.

If you're looking for evidence of CLM's work - look at the entire team. 13-0 was the result of a damn strong, well-coached ball club that did NOT have a championship caliber QB. And when it came down to it, that liability cost them the Championship.

CLM has acquired several, high quality QB's that should completely remove that liability. I expect several National Championships in the coming years.

Posted by EarthwormJim
Member since Dec 2005
10063 posts
Posted on 1/21/12 at 11:05 am to
quote:

*CLM did not dare rock the boat (i.e. begin to tinker and install the LesBechler) until after he had the job security (the "equity") to do so. This, to me, may explain the inexplicable decision to pluck a hot-handed, several-games-undefeated JL and insert JJ. Why is this so hard for some to understand?


In 2004 our QBs threw for about 2400 yards all year. This year we threw for around 2100. So please explain again how Les made a major shift in philosophy from the Saban regime.
This post was edited on 1/21/12 at 11:09 am
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