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Statistically possible for us to win SEC title next weekend
Posted on 5/15/16 at 6:43 pm
Posted on 5/15/16 at 6:43 pm
With USCe taking down A&M tonight, this is the scenario in which we win at least a share of the SEC Title:
- We must sweep UF, UF is 18-8 (best conf. record), we are 17-10. UF had 1 game canceled which is why they have played 1 less. So only beating them 2/3 does us no good (well it does us a lot of good, but we wont win the SEC), as they would finish 19-10, we would finish 19-11. This is the first qualifier for it happening though, we have to sweep UF and finish 20-10 in the SEC. Everything from here on out I talk about, is assuming we do this:
- USCe is 17-9, they are playing @ Alabama, all we need is Alabama to win 1 game there, and we are ahead of USCe who would finish 19-10 (if USCe goes 2-1 against Alabama)
- A&M is 18-9, they play Ole Miss at home, all we need is Ole Miss to win 1 game there, and we are tied with A&M at 20-10 (now they have the tie breaker over us for SECT), but we still would win a share of SEC Title
- State is 18-9, they play Arkansas at home, all we need is Arkansas to win 1 game there, and we are tied with MSU at 20-10
Everything else anything can happen and we still at least win a share of SEC title.
I realize sweeping Florida is very, very likely improbable, but just saying STATISTICALLY we can absolutely win a share of the SEC Championship going into the final weekend of play, and IF we take care of our own business, it's looking pretty good in the other scenarios needing to happen. Pretty incredible considering nobody really thought we'd be in this place before the season started, or even probably 2 weekends ago pre-Arkansas.
- We must sweep UF, UF is 18-8 (best conf. record), we are 17-10. UF had 1 game canceled which is why they have played 1 less. So only beating them 2/3 does us no good (well it does us a lot of good, but we wont win the SEC), as they would finish 19-10, we would finish 19-11. This is the first qualifier for it happening though, we have to sweep UF and finish 20-10 in the SEC. Everything from here on out I talk about, is assuming we do this:
- USCe is 17-9, they are playing @ Alabama, all we need is Alabama to win 1 game there, and we are ahead of USCe who would finish 19-10 (if USCe goes 2-1 against Alabama)
- A&M is 18-9, they play Ole Miss at home, all we need is Ole Miss to win 1 game there, and we are tied with A&M at 20-10 (now they have the tie breaker over us for SECT), but we still would win a share of SEC Title
- State is 18-9, they play Arkansas at home, all we need is Arkansas to win 1 game there, and we are tied with MSU at 20-10
Everything else anything can happen and we still at least win a share of SEC title.
I realize sweeping Florida is very, very likely improbable, but just saying STATISTICALLY we can absolutely win a share of the SEC Championship going into the final weekend of play, and IF we take care of our own business, it's looking pretty good in the other scenarios needing to happen. Pretty incredible considering nobody really thought we'd be in this place before the season started, or even probably 2 weekends ago pre-Arkansas.
This post was edited on 5/15/16 at 6:48 pm
4
Posted on 5/15/16 at 6:49 pm to thunderbird1100
You forgot MS State playing Arkansas. That's the biggest buggaboo in any scenario of LSU winning part of the SEC title.
Edit: seems your edit beat my post. Haha.
Edit: seems your edit beat my post. Haha.
This post was edited on 5/15/16 at 7:11 pm
Posted on 5/15/16 at 6:53 pm to Sasquatch Smash
Yeah i fixed that for State.
But really the biggest hurdle is sweepign UF, probably just no way that happens. I would be VERY excited if we took 2/3.
Outside of Vanderbilt, we have not fared well against the good teams this year in the SEC. Lost series to State, Ole Miss and aTm.
But really the biggest hurdle is sweepign UF, probably just no way that happens. I would be VERY excited if we took 2/3.
Outside of Vanderbilt, we have not fared well against the good teams this year in the SEC. Lost series to State, Ole Miss and aTm.
This post was edited on 5/15/16 at 6:54 pm
Posted on 5/15/16 at 7:03 pm to thunderbird1100
Posted on 5/15/16 at 7:09 pm to crazycubes
If we were to host a regional, how hard is it to get tickets? I will be in Baton Rouge that weekend, and would like to take in a game. Can you get tickets to only one game, or do you have to purchase a package? I am hopeful that we will get that regional host spot. Feeling good about Florida. This team is playing with confidence right now, and refuse to give up!! Any help with ticket suggestions would be appreciated.
Posted on 5/16/16 at 8:06 am to thunderbird1100
SEC championship is great and I would celebrate winning one but right now I just want a top four finish.
Posted on 5/16/16 at 8:12 am to CaroTiger
quote:I've always seen people holding up tickets for sale outside the stadium for every LSU regional game. You may not get grandstand seats but you can always get in.
If we were to host a regional, how hard is it to get tickets?
If nothing else, you can get SRO tickets at the ticket window.
quote:The tickets are sold as a set for all the games, but fans tear out the tickets they want to sell so you can get individual game tickets from them. I'm not sure if LSU sells individual game tickets on game day other than SRO tickets.
Can you get tickets to only one game, or do you have to purchase a package?
Posted on 5/16/16 at 12:44 pm to thunderbird1100
If we sweep Florida this weekend OR Win the series 2-1 AND play in the SEC Championship GAME. We will earn a National Seed. FACT
Posted on 5/16/16 at 12:56 pm to thunderbird1100
Can Lange start Friday and Sunday? That about the only hope we'd have of sweeping Florida 
All seriousness, they are a legit ball club but LSU looks to be peaking right now. Keep the momentum and we could possible take 2 games and win the series. That would he huge going into post season.
All seriousness, they are a legit ball club but LSU looks to be peaking right now. Keep the momentum and we could possible take 2 games and win the series. That would he huge going into post season.
Posted on 5/16/16 at 12:59 pm to Austin Cajun
quote:Not likely. There is no game on Sunday....
Can Lange start Friday and Sunday?
Posted on 5/16/16 at 2:01 pm to Kajuncook
I think you are confusing fact and opinion. If LSu were to sweep Florida or win the SEC Tournament Title, it would definitely strengthen their resume, but it doesn't mean they would be guaranteed a National Seed. Unless you are Selection Committee member or know someone on the Committee,then your guess is as good as mine.
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