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Message
re: Recap: LSU 84, Auburn 61
Posted on 2/25/15 at 10:23 am to purplengold1
Posted on 2/25/15 at 10:23 am to purplengold1
quote:
If Ole Miss takes down Georgia tonight that could be a massive RPI game Saturday.
Wouldn't this be a wash since we played both teams?
Though I guess we play Ole Miss twice.
1
Posted on 2/25/15 at 10:23 am to burgeman
quote:
Only loss they could sustain would be at Arky
Yea I'm pretty confident LSU would get in with 2 more regular season wins reguardless of who to. Obviously there are so many variables in this equation that you can't just predict based off LSU results, but I'd be shocked if a 22-23 win LSU team was left out of the tournament.
Posted on 2/25/15 at 10:26 am to LSUtoOmaha
quote:
Wouldn't this be a wash since we played both teams?
Though I guess we play Ole Miss twice.
Obviously for RPI, we want Ole Miss to win, but it isn't that big of a difference. I think alot of people dont realize how little one game matters for opponents.
RPI formula is so basic:
quote:
Factor I is the team's Division I winning percentage and is 25 percent of the RPI. Games against non-Division I opponents are not included in the normal RPI. For the men, beginning in 2004-05, and for the women, beginning in 2011-12, home wins are weighted 0.6, neutral wins 1.0, and road wins count 1.4, and road losses are 0.6, neutral losses 1.0, and home losses 1.4.
Factor II is the team's opponents' Division I winning percentage, or the team's schedule strength, excluding results against the team in question. It is 50 percent of the RPI.
Factor III is the team's opponents' opponents' Division I winning percentage, or the team's opponents' strength of schedule, excluding results against the team in question. Factor III is 25 percent of the RPI.
This is why playing bad teams is so bad. RPI is 1/2 based off opponents win percentage....
That is flawed to me and why I hate RPI, but you have to play the game.
Let's take last nights game for example as to how it affected our RPI...
Factor 1:
Road win gets us 1.4 (25% of the formula)
Factor 2:
Auburns win% (not including LSU) is .423 (50% of formula)
Factor 3:
Auburns opponent win% is .692 (25% of formula)
So
Factor 1 - .35 (out of .35)
Factor 2 - .211 (out of .500)
Factor 3 - .173 (out of .250)
so the game RPI was .734.
On the season LSU's RPI is .5758 so it was a good win for RPI, mostly due to being a road win. If the game was at home LSU would only have a game RPI of .534 which would hurt our RPI.
On the season LSU's RPI win % is
wins: 18
home: 7.2
road: 9.8
neutral 1.0
losses: 8
home: 4.2
road: 1.8
neutral: 2
So our win % is 69.2 (worse than our 71.4% actual win %)
This post was edited on 2/25/15 at 10:44 am
Posted on 2/25/15 at 10:30 am to SouthOfSouth
quote:
Let's not make the mistake in saying that LSU had a good win last night,
At this point...ANY win is a good win.....
Posted on 2/25/15 at 10:59 am to SouthOfSouth
Damn. Looking at that a road win over Arkansas could be better than a home win over UK?
Posted on 2/25/15 at 11:02 am to LSUtoOmaha
quote:
Looking at that a road win over Arkansas could be better than a home win over UK?
UK home win:
.15
.5
.165
RPI .815 for UK home win
Ark road win:
.35
.387
.146
RPI .883 for Ark road win
So a road win over Arkansas would help RPI more than a home win over UK.
This post was edited on 2/25/15 at 11:10 am
Posted on 2/25/15 at 11:14 am to SouthOfSouth
Thanks. I disagree with what the RPI is essentially "saying" there, but it is interesting.
Posted on 2/25/15 at 11:17 am to LSUtoOmaha
There is very little I agree with when it comes to the RPI. 
Posted on 2/25/15 at 11:28 am to SouthOfSouth
"How would you feel if you had a great year, finished a 6 seed then got paired up with LSU in the tournament."
You ain't kidding. You're 26-7, ranked 20-ish by the AP and feeling mighty fine about yourself. And then you see Martin and Mickey, look at your bench, and have to deal with the likelihood that, as good as you are, you don't have guys like that.
You ain't kidding. You're 26-7, ranked 20-ish by the AP and feeling mighty fine about yourself. And then you see Martin and Mickey, look at your bench, and have to deal with the likelihood that, as good as you are, you don't have guys like that.
Posted on 2/25/15 at 11:42 am to N.O. via West-Cal
quote:Let's not get too excited here; Mickey and Martin are legit, competent big men. They are not lottery picks (although Martin is suddenly beginning to look like he should be a first round pick). You have to figure our guys' stats are skewed a bit by playing so many minutes, while a team like Michigan State has better depth up front.
You ain't kidding. You're 26-7, ranked 20-ish by the AP and feeling mighty fine about yourself. And then you see Martin and Mickey, look at your bench, and have to deal with the likelihood that, as good as you are, you don't have guys like that.
Point- we have 2 guys "like that", they might have 4.
Posted on 2/25/15 at 11:48 am to LSUtoOmaha
Starting to do some reasearch and if we win our next three games (very tough) on factor 1 alone we would move into 41st... I believe it would also improve our factor 2 and factor 3 due to the opponents.
Posted on 2/25/15 at 12:03 pm to Alt26
quote:
LSU just flew down court for an easy basket. The current starting 5 can all run the floor with ease. I wouldn't entice them to do so if I was an opposing coach.
Agree here. Wisconsin would be a nightmare matchup for us in a round 2 game. We are so smooth handling the ball in transition. All 5 of our starters can dribble the full length of the court while creating their own shot or passing to a better shot. That is rare in college Basketball. that a&m loss still stings. Both of them. Both up big in the 2nd against a solid team. Now instead of playing seeding we are still playing just to get in.
I'm confident we get in. I prefer a 10-12 seed over 8-9 though. I like us in the first round over any 5+ seed. Would prefer to see a 3 or 4 seed in round 2 versus a Gonzaga/Zona/Kentucky
Posted on 2/25/15 at 12:12 pm to SouthOfSouth
quote:
Starting to do some reasearch and if we win our next three games (very tough) on factor 1 alone we would move into 41st... I believe it would also improve our factor 2 and factor 3 due to the opponents.
Can you do the same thing but make Arkansas a loss? I'd guess that would place us around 46th on Factor 1.
Posted on 2/25/15 at 12:13 pm to SouthOfSouth
quote:
The win has seemed to please some of the rankings. LSU's ESPN RPI moved up to 50th (from 53) after the win. Their BPI moved from 38th to 35th. The Tigers KenPom ranking moved into the 20's for the first time this season jumping from 32 to 29 after the 23 point win. CBS's RPI still has LSU ranked 52nd.
Movin on up
Posted on 2/25/15 at 12:23 pm to LSUtoOmaha
It would actually only improve our RPI by .001, which would put us around 50... Like I said, I do think our SOS would increase which would help the other two factors, but on factor 1 alone, going 2-1 with the loss being to Arkansas isnt all that helpful.
Posted on 2/25/15 at 12:27 pm to SouthOfSouth
Weird. I guess the moral of the story is road wins are HUGE.
And, homes wins against bad teams are worse than you would think.
And, homes wins against bad teams are worse than you would think.
Posted on 2/25/15 at 12:40 pm to LSUzealot
Jarell would go dunk city on wisconsins unathletic white guys
Posted on 2/25/15 at 12:54 pm to Scoob
quote:
although Martin is suddenly beginning to look like he should be a first round pick
What is the deal w/ Martin?
Is it that his effort has increased, or is it that the light has finally come on for him?
Posted on 2/25/15 at 1:03 pm to Brbengal
quote:Y'know, it's hard to say. I thought his game had become more consistent, but honestly, go back and look at the past several games: big game against Kentucky (L), invisible against Tennessee (W) and A&M (L), dominant against Fla (W) and Auburn (W). That A&M game could be a killer for LSU, and it might make me worry a bit if I was drafting him.
What is the deal w/ Martin?
Is it that his effort has increased, or is it that the light has finally come on for him?
Posted on 2/25/15 at 1:25 pm to LSUzealot
quote:
Wisconsin would be a nightmare matchup for us in a round 2 game. We are so smooth handling the ball in transition. All 5 of our starters can dribble the full length of the court while creating their own shot or passing to a better shot
Wow. Wisky is a terrible matchup for LSU. They are way more fundamentally sound than LSU is... Guard play will be huge in the tourney.
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