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re: Potential SEC Scenarios and how it shapes the playoff

Posted on 10/29/24 at 5:35 pm to
Posted by Double Oh
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2008
21302 posts
Posted on 10/29/24 at 5:35 pm to
quote:

SEC Standings Scenarios
Scenario 1: 
A&M: 10-2, 7-1
LSU: 10-2, 7-1
Georgia 11-1, 7-1
Texas 11-1, 7-1
Tennessee 10-2, 6-2

There is no chance that 5 SEC teams will get in; potentially, only 3 teams will get in if Miami, Clemson, Iowa State, Indiana, Notre Dame, Pitt, and BYU keep winning. 

Playoff spots (no particular order)
1 SEC champ
2 B10 champ
3 B12 champ
4 ACC champ
5 SEC
6 B10
7 SEC
8 B10
9 B12 runner up
10 ACC runner up
11 Notre Dame/B10/SEC
12 Group of 5
We need these B12 and ACC contenders to drop games. This season has been surprisingly chalky. The only big upsets have been Vandy over Alabama, Kentucky over Ole Miss, and Arkansas over Tennessee.
Clemson has three challenging remaining games: at VT, at Pitt, and vs SC.
I think Notre Dame loses to USC, but even with this, the SEC could end up with only three teams.

Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State are virtual locks. If Indiana’s only loss is to Ohio State, they are probably in, taking away the SEC’s 4th spot. 


It could be even crazier if Ole Miss beats Georgia. In this scenario:
A&M 10-2, 7-1
LSU 10-2, 7-1
Texas 11-1, 7-1
Georgia 10-2, 6-2
Tennessee 10-2, 6-2
Ole Miss 10-2, 6-2

My point is that the season is shaping up for a few teams to be “screwed” and left out of the playoff. 
Tennessee should be one of them
Standings Simulator





Can you please stop about the playoff scenarios. This team is not going to the playoffs get that through your thick skull
Posted by LSUStar
Medellin
Member since Sep 2009
11405 posts
Posted on 10/29/24 at 5:39 pm to
Don't A&M and Texas play each other?
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
22174 posts
Posted on 10/29/24 at 6:27 pm to
I played with the ESPN playoff predictor and if LSU goes 4-0 they have a near certain chance of playing in the SECCG.

Obviously if LSU won that game they get a bye into the second round of the playoff at 11-2.

Even if LSU lost the SECCG and finished 10-3 the playoff simulator has us in 82% of the time in that scenario. 25% of the simulations say LSU would even host a playoff game in the first round.

ESPN playoff predictor

Point is LSU has everything left to play for.

ETA in the weird scenario LSU finished 10-2 (7-1) and DIDNT make the SECCG they’d have >99% chance to make the playoff and very good odds of hosting a first round playoff game.
This post was edited on 10/29/24 at 6:29 pm
Posted by extremelsu
Member since Aug 2013
4841 posts
Posted on 10/29/24 at 7:35 pm to
quote:

Even if LSU lost the SECCG and finished 10-3 the playoff simulator has us in 82% of the time in that scenario.
that is surprising
Posted by moock blackjack
Member since Apr 2008
105790 posts
Posted on 10/29/24 at 7:44 pm to
4 SEC teams is a guarantee
Posted by Nutriaitch
Montegut
Member since Apr 2008
9659 posts
Posted on 10/29/24 at 8:08 pm to
quote:

4 SEC teams is a guarantee


it's a high probability but not even close to guaranteed.
and you don't even need anything crazy or unheard of to get it to only 3.
Posted by TN Tygah
Member since Nov 2023
6595 posts
Posted on 10/29/24 at 9:08 pm to
quote:

Idgaf what you think about USC and UCLA. We should be rewarded for having the balls to schedule those two on top of our SEC schedule.


Just imagine the reward if we scheduled Western Kentucky instead of USCw

How much upside is there, really, if we schedule Clemson over like Akron or someone. Honestly. We’re just going to lose anyway.
Posted by Davy
Member since Dec 2021
579 posts
Posted on 10/29/24 at 9:18 pm to
quote:

Highly unlikely that SEC gets less than 4


Dude, you don't know
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