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Posted on 6/26/10 at 7:38 pm to chilge1
quote:
I can see where you're coming from, but the flaw in your argument is that we don't play any team on the schedule more than once. In your baseball analogy, if you have to predict if a batter that bats .350 will hit a single pitch thrown at him, I, and most, would predict that he would not hit the ball.
It doesn't matter whether it's the same batter or team or not. What matters is the probability of winning. If we play 10 different teams that we have an 80% chance against each of, we will still likely lose two of them, even though each of those two will be the only one we play against that particular team.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 7:48 pm to Nuts4LSU
North Carolina 75%
@ Vanderbilt 99%
Miss. State 95%
West Virginia 80%
Tennessee 80%
@ Florida 40%
McNeese St. 100%
@ Auburn 60%
Alabama 60%
UL-Monroe 100%
Ole Miss 75%
@ Arkansas 65%
= 9.29 wins. I say 10 really.
@ Vanderbilt 99%
Miss. State 95%
West Virginia 80%
Tennessee 80%
@ Florida 40%
McNeese St. 100%
@ Auburn 60%
Alabama 60%
UL-Monroe 100%
Ole Miss 75%
@ Arkansas 65%
= 9.29 wins. I say 10 really.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 7:51 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
If we play 10 different teams that we have an 80% chance against each of, we will still likely lose two of them, even though each of those two will be the only one we play against that particular team.
no, those are independent events. that's like saying if I have a 50% chance of nailing girl A and a 50% chance of nailing girl B, there's a 100% chance I'll nail one of them.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 7:54 pm to Springlake Tiger
Wouldn't be surprised. To be honest... and to quote Han Solo...
"I got a bad feeling about this."
"I got a bad feeling about this."
Posted on 6/26/10 at 7:55 pm to chilge1
quote:
In your baseball analogy, if you have to predict if a batter that bats .350 will hit a single pitch thrown at him, I, and most, would predict that he would not hit the ball.
So would I. In fact, each time he went to bat, if I were asked to predict whether he'd get a hit on that at-bat, I'd predict he wouldn't.
And I'd be wrong 35% of the time. That's why, if I were asked to predict how many hits he'll get in the next 100 at-bats, I'd predict about 35.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 7:55 pm to Springlake Tiger
North Carolina 58%
@ Vanderbilt 70%
Miss. State 85%
West Virginia 66%
Tennessee 60%
@ Florida 25%
McNeese St. 94%
@ Auburn 45%
Alabama 42%
UL-Monroe 98%
Ole Miss 67%
@ Arkansas 48%
@ Vanderbilt 70%
Miss. State 85%
West Virginia 66%
Tennessee 60%
@ Florida 25%
McNeese St. 94%
@ Auburn 45%
Alabama 42%
UL-Monroe 98%
Ole Miss 67%
@ Arkansas 48%
Posted on 6/26/10 at 7:58 pm to ForeLSU
quote:
no, those are independent events. that's like saying if I have a 50% chance of nailing girl A and a 50% chance of nailing girl B, there's a 100% chance I'll nail one of them.
No, there's not a 100% chance. It doesn't work that way. There's a 25% chance you won't nail either of them and a 25% chance you'll nail them both. But if I had to predict, I'd predict that you would nail one of them.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 8:08 pm to jnatio4
quote:
9.29 wins. I say 10 really.
Practically every national champion has defied the probabilities that would have been set at the beginning of the season, so this is certainly possible. I hope you are right. No, actually, I hope you're wrong. I hope it's 12, not 10.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 8:18 pm to Nuts4LSU
we will lose 5 or 6 games this season, book it!
Posted on 6/26/10 at 8:30 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
10 games with an 80% chance in each game doesn't mean a prediction of 10-0, although each individual game is more likely to be a win than a loss. If a loss has a 20% chance of happening in each game, then about 2 out of 10 games will be a loss.
no.
just because its possible they lose some
does not mean its happening.
Even with those 'odds', LSU could be 12-0.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 8:40 pm to ottothewise
quote:
just because its possible they lose some
does not mean its happening.
Even with those 'odds', LSU could be 12-0.
Agreed. Over a small sample, results could vary considerably from the probabilities. A .350 batter can go through an 0-for-10 slump. Or, he can go 5-for-5 in a game. But, over a large number of at bats, he's probably going to get hits 35% of the time.
With an 80% chance in each game, and 10 games to play, the best prediction of the team's record is 8-2. That prediction is...
A) more likely to be exactly correct than any other particular predicted record would be, and
B) likely to be, on average, closer to being correct (when it's not exactly correct) than any other particular predicted record.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 9:13 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
Umm...you do realize that Dooley completely outcoached Miles last season at LA Tech, right??
Umm...you do realize that Dooley no longer coaches LA Tech, right?
Posted on 6/26/10 at 9:20 pm to Springlake Tiger
North Carolina 100%
@ Vanderbilt 100%
Miss. State 100%
West Virginia 100%
Tennessee 100%
@ Florida 100%
McNeese St. 100%
@ Auburn 100%
Alabama 100%
UL-Monroe 100%
Ole Miss 100%
@ Arkansas 100%
@ Vanderbilt 100%
Miss. State 100%
West Virginia 100%
Tennessee 100%
@ Florida 100%
McNeese St. 100%
@ Auburn 100%
Alabama 100%
UL-Monroe 100%
Ole Miss 100%
@ Arkansas 100%
Posted on 6/26/10 at 9:22 pm to Tim
quote:
we will lose 5 or 6 games this season, book it!
BOOKED!!!!!!!!!
Posted on 6/26/10 at 9:23 pm to windriver
quote:
Umm...you do realize that Dooley no longer coaches LA Tech, right?
<the point>
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quote:
windriver
Posted on 6/26/10 at 9:36 pm to Springlake Tiger
North Carolina 60%
@ Vanderbilt 100%
Miss. State 95%
West Virginia 90%
Tennessee 90%
@ Florida 50%
McNeese St. 100%
@ Auburn 65%
Alabama 50%
UL-Monroe 100%
Ole Miss 100%
@ Arkansas 70%
@ Vanderbilt 100%
Miss. State 95%
West Virginia 90%
Tennessee 90%
@ Florida 50%
McNeese St. 100%
@ Auburn 65%
Alabama 50%
UL-Monroe 100%
Ole Miss 100%
@ Arkansas 70%
Posted on 6/26/10 at 10:13 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
so your saying there's a chance
what was all that one in a million talk? lol
Posted on 6/26/10 at 10:29 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
.55 + .85 + .80 + .65 + .60 + .10 + .99 + .40 + .10 + .99 + .50 + .25 = 6.78 wins in the regular season
This is poor statistical logic. You are applying percentages to a formula used to determine a mean.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 10:34 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
If a loss has a 20% chance of happening in each game, then about 2 out of 10 games will be a loss.
A 20% likelihood of a loss or win (or a lucky seven in craps) might not occur until after 27 or 30 or even 103 intervals.
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