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Posted on 11/26/11 at 6:20 pm to la_birdman
It doesn't matter we will beat either team but my vote goes to ok state since bama had their chance & their coach & kicker couldn't get it done on their home turf. Bring on state so we can stomp them senseless too
Posted on 11/26/11 at 6:22 pm to la_birdman
This isn't what I read but he just posted this a couple days ago.
SIAP
"1) REMATCH Bama looks to be in much better shape now with the weekend upsets, but I still think Oklahoma State could pass them with a win over OU - it would be close in my opinion. Ok State's computer score would be much better than Bama's and Oklahoma State would only need ~25% of voters to give them the nod over Bama and that doesn't seem like a hard sell when Bama didn't win their division and already lost to LSU. Losses by Va Tech and Stanford might HURT Alabama because they are stealing some anti-Bama votes from OSU right now.
I think Va Tech's computer score is too weak right now to knock out Bama. But the ACC does have 4 games left against the SEC and a clean sweep could valult Va Tech's computer ranking (not sure it would be enough). Stanford has no real shot unless they maybe squeak in the Pac12 title game - and even then not really.
2) SECCG loss It should be definite now that LSU could lose the SECCG to Georgia and finish 12-1 and easily make the NC game. I can't fathom LSU being left out. I am not even sure we need to show up.
3) 3-WAY SECW TIE?If Arky beats LSU, there will be a 3-way tie to go to the SECCG (provided Bama beats AU). What LSU needs is for Arky to finish third of 3 in the BCS so they get eliminated from the tie breaker and we would go to the SECCG. It doesn't matter if Bama finishes 1st and us 2nd, we would go because of the win over Bama.
While my bet is still on LSU squeaking in, I am more nervous now with the new computer scores. Arky really closed the gap on Alabama and I think could pass Bama in at least a couple computers. LSU would still be solidly above both in the computers, but would it be enough to overcome whatever the human polls do? I still say yes. I would think the difference in the 3 teams in the human polls are razor thin with Bama getting a slight edge because they beat Arky by 24. Then LSU has BY FAR the best resume, but Arky has the most recent win. As long as Bama has a small edge over Arky in the polls and LSU keeps it relatively close (and I mean like 10-20% of voters put LSU over Arky), LSU should be fine. So A blowout loss would be no good.
Now, bad things could happen. We want LSU's and Bama's computer score to be higher than Arky's so other games need to go our way. We would pull for:
1. Bama over AU (This happened)
2. Texas over A&M (This happened)
3. Clemson over SC
4. PSU over Wisconsin (Didn't happen)
5. Oregon over OSU (This happened)
6. WVU over Pitt (that game never means anything to LSU)
etc. (WVU beat Pitt)
In the end, if I were a betting man and LSU lost to Arky by less than a TD I would say 75% chance LSU, 20% Bama, 5% Arky"
We beat Arky so that helps also. Duh.
SIAP
"1) REMATCH Bama looks to be in much better shape now with the weekend upsets, but I still think Oklahoma State could pass them with a win over OU - it would be close in my opinion. Ok State's computer score would be much better than Bama's and Oklahoma State would only need ~25% of voters to give them the nod over Bama and that doesn't seem like a hard sell when Bama didn't win their division and already lost to LSU. Losses by Va Tech and Stanford might HURT Alabama because they are stealing some anti-Bama votes from OSU right now.
I think Va Tech's computer score is too weak right now to knock out Bama. But the ACC does have 4 games left against the SEC and a clean sweep could valult Va Tech's computer ranking (not sure it would be enough). Stanford has no real shot unless they maybe squeak in the Pac12 title game - and even then not really.
2) SECCG loss It should be definite now that LSU could lose the SECCG to Georgia and finish 12-1 and easily make the NC game. I can't fathom LSU being left out. I am not even sure we need to show up.
3) 3-WAY SECW TIE?If Arky beats LSU, there will be a 3-way tie to go to the SECCG (provided Bama beats AU). What LSU needs is for Arky to finish third of 3 in the BCS so they get eliminated from the tie breaker and we would go to the SECCG. It doesn't matter if Bama finishes 1st and us 2nd, we would go because of the win over Bama.
While my bet is still on LSU squeaking in, I am more nervous now with the new computer scores. Arky really closed the gap on Alabama and I think could pass Bama in at least a couple computers. LSU would still be solidly above both in the computers, but would it be enough to overcome whatever the human polls do? I still say yes. I would think the difference in the 3 teams in the human polls are razor thin with Bama getting a slight edge because they beat Arky by 24. Then LSU has BY FAR the best resume, but Arky has the most recent win. As long as Bama has a small edge over Arky in the polls and LSU keeps it relatively close (and I mean like 10-20% of voters put LSU over Arky), LSU should be fine. So A blowout loss would be no good.
Now, bad things could happen. We want LSU's and Bama's computer score to be higher than Arky's so other games need to go our way. We would pull for:
1. Bama over AU (This happened)
2. Texas over A&M (This happened)
3. Clemson over SC
4. PSU over Wisconsin (Didn't happen)
5. Oregon over OSU (This happened)
6. WVU over Pitt (that game never means anything to LSU)
etc. (WVU beat Pitt)
In the end, if I were a betting man and LSU lost to Arky by less than a TD I would say 75% chance LSU, 20% Bama, 5% Arky"
We beat Arky so that helps also. Duh.
Posted on 11/26/11 at 6:23 pm to la_birdman
Does okie st really have a legitimate chance to get in? Thats my question for lsumatt and whoever else knows the ins and outs of the bcs formula. Is there realistically anything they can do to convince enough voters to move them to 2 after next week? I understand ok st's computer scores, but with voters being 2/3 of the formula, is it a realistic chance that they can pass bama?
This post was edited on 11/26/11 at 6:25 pm
Posted on 11/26/11 at 6:23 pm to lsufan1215
Bama. Period.
Posted on 11/26/11 at 6:24 pm to Oyster
Posted on 11/26/11 at 6:27 pm to silverthorn
quote:With a win over Oklahoma..Absolutely.
Does okie st really have a legitimate chance to get in?
Posted on 11/26/11 at 6:29 pm to lsufan1215
A lot of things are happening that could help them vault Bama. Wisconsin beat Penn State, Kentucky beat Tennessee, and LSU beat Arky. Penn State and Arkansas were two quality wins that Bama could hang its hat on in addition to the idea that they are undefeated in regulation. Bama goes idle next week.
If OSU beats OU, I think they can leap Bama. Human voters may not want to see an all-SEC game if there's an alternative that won't cause too much uproar. Bama has already been beaten by #1, so that could help OSU's case as well.
If OSU beats OU, I think they can leap Bama. Human voters may not want to see an all-SEC game if there's an alternative that won't cause too much uproar. Bama has already been beaten by #1, so that could help OSU's case as well.
Posted on 11/26/11 at 6:33 pm to Cadello
Maybe its my sec bias upbringing, but i dont see the voters moving ok st past bama next week. I think we'll beat whoever they send us, but to have even 25% of voters change their mind seems to be a stretch. Oh well,
Deathrider, good points about penn st & arky. Will be interesting to see.
Deathrider, good points about penn st & arky. Will be interesting to see.
This post was edited on 11/26/11 at 6:36 pm
Posted on 11/26/11 at 6:34 pm to lsufan1215
We win no matter who we play. I wanna play Bama so we can pwn then twice in same year.
Posted on 11/26/11 at 6:36 pm to silverthorn
quote:
is it a realistic chance that they can pass bama?
I think what is realistic is two things:
1) Voters would want to put a conference champion in over a team who didn't even win its division (even if it is by far the hardest division)
2) not all voters will want a rematch. Some voters will see it as Bama had their chance and won't want to give them another chance.
Posted on 11/26/11 at 6:41 pm to lsufan1215
I would like to beat OK state and Bama to win its bowl game. SEC domination
But if we play Bama then so be it. My day still goes on.
But if we play Bama then so be it. My day still goes on.
Posted on 11/26/11 at 6:42 pm to CapitalCityTiger
quote:This!
Bama is number 2 in only 2 computer rankings
OSU must finish #3 in the Human Polls with 25% of the #2 votes to pass Bama.
Posted on 11/26/11 at 7:13 pm to la_birdman
quote:
Ok. State is #2 in 6 of 8 computers, I think that's what I remember reading. Bama is #2 in 4 of 6 computers.
Posted on 11/26/11 at 7:15 pm to lsufan1215
It doesn't freaking matter who LSU plays but please quit crying about a rematch. It makes us look weak. And like cowards.
This post was edited on 11/26/11 at 7:15 pm
Posted on 11/26/11 at 7:17 pm to lsufan1215
quote:
1) Voters would want to put a conference champion in over a team who didn't even win its division (even if it is by far the hardest division)
2) not all voters will want a rematch. Some voters will see it as Bama had their chance and won't want to give them another chance.
Agreed.
Posted on 11/26/11 at 7:20 pm to Alatgr
quote:
Ok. State is #2 in 6 of 8 computers, I think that's what I remember reading. Bama is #2 in 4 of 6 computers.
Oh I did say I may have had the numbers wrong. I read that about a week ago. Geez.
Good clip from Scanners though.
Posted on 11/26/11 at 7:25 pm to la_birdman
If Stanford gets beat tonight and Va tech loses next week I say okie st. Gets in. They would have all the 3rd place votes and probably get the required 2nd place votes
Posted on 11/26/11 at 7:29 pm to MFV
I've been thinking OSU goes just by beating OU. OU doesn't have Broyles or Dominique Whaley and the game is in Stillwater.
But I do see what you mean. I'm thinking also if VT beats Clemson next week, then you could potentially have 2 conference champions over a one loss SEC team that didn't play in it's conference championship. That would play a huge part with the human voters in relation to what they do with Bama.
But I do see what you mean. I'm thinking also if VT beats Clemson next week, then you could potentially have 2 conference champions over a one loss SEC team that didn't play in it's conference championship. That would play a huge part with the human voters in relation to what they do with Bama.
Posted on 11/26/11 at 9:04 pm to Oyster
quote:
Greed over not wanting SEC to get both shares of pot keeps bama out! Provided OSU beats OU.
Agreed. It is not all about the "best matchup" just like the bowl games. Money rules.
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