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re: LSU v. Alabama -- BCS NGC 01/09/12 @ Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Posted on 12/4/11 at 3:26 am to
Posted by chilld28
Get in B Chord and Mash It!!
Member since Nov 2009
29622 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 3:26 am to
quote:

ETA: Looks like that link is not updated. Ignore.
It looks like an updated projection. They have Va Tech at 11 and they are currently 5 in last week's BCS.
This post was edited on 12/4/11 at 3:26 am
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 3:37 am to
Yeah, OSU may be okay in massey. That may mean Wolfe could be a deal breaker. It is too close to call in that one. If I had to guess I would say OSU takes over Bama in Wolfe, but not really sure. Wolfe appears to be a poll where you get "credit" for wins more than penalized for losses. OSU may be behind Bama simply because Bama played an extra game.

I think that CBS link is just speculating what the computers will look like.
Posted by chilld28
Get in B Chord and Mash It!!
Member since Nov 2009
29622 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 3:41 am to
quote:

I think that CBS link is just speculating what the computers will look like.
Yeah, Edwards said that the the one computer already posted and the Coaches Poll would be the only pieces of the puzzle that we would see until the show tomorrow night.

Posted by themunch
bottom of the list
Member since Jan 2007
71357 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 3:49 am to
There would be no good reason to put Alabama ahead of Okie State in the coaches poll.
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 3:50 am to
Sagarin through a wrench in this. Here is what we'll know from the Coaches

1. If Bama has much more than a 30 vote lead in the Coaches poll, Bama should be in

2. If Bama has about a 15-30 point lead, the Wolfe computer will decide.

3. If Bama has less than a 15 vote lead, OSU should be in
Posted by chilld28
Get in B Chord and Mash It!!
Member since Nov 2009
29622 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 3:51 am to
Edwards thinks we will be number 2 in the coaches. He says the point margin is what matters though.

quote:

@BradEdwards_BCS Brad Edwards Once again, only other piece of the puzzle we'll get is coaches' poll. Bama will be 2, but the points gap is the key.
This post was edited on 12/4/11 at 3:52 am
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 3:59 am to
Oh, that is what I am saying. No doubt Bama is #2. Question is whether they have a gap of more than 30 votes or not
Posted by chilld28
Get in B Chord and Mash It!!
Member since Nov 2009
29622 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:02 am to
I was responding to the poster that replied saying that there was no good reason Bama should be ahead of Okie St in the coaches poll.
Posted by loweralabamatrojan
Lower Alabama
Member since Oct 2006
13240 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:04 am to
quote:

It will be close; no doubt. We should know if they are in or out by tomorrow afternoon. They will need to be within ~30 votes of Bama in the Coaches and about 57 in the Harris. The AP poll will come out first and will be a great indicator. If they are within 30 votes in that poll - watch out.
Hooray, it's relevant after all.
Posted by juanoLSU
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
540 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:04 am to
Wow! What time the other computers post their new rankings Matt? It would be interesting who Les votes #2, his old job or the fighting Sabans
Posted by chilld28
Get in B Chord and Mash It!!
Member since Nov 2009
29622 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:09 am to
quote:

What time the other computers post their new rankings Matt?
According to Brad Edwards, no other computers will release their rankings until after the BCS Show that night.
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:10 am to
Unfortunately we'll be guessing on most computers until the actual BCS is released. Colley I can calculate, but that one was easily going to be OSU #2 and Bama #3. Billingsly is easy to predict as well and will also have OSU at #2
Posted by SLTiger29
Galliano, Louisiana
Member since Oct 2011
734 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:16 am to
How did Okie state manage to avoid a bump?
Posted by juanoLSU
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
540 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:17 am to
I'm glad I'm not the only one who can't sleep from the excitement
Posted by loweralabamatrojan
Lower Alabama
Member since Oct 2006
13240 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:24 am to
Matt, in your opinion what are the best/worst case scenarios for the longevity of the BCS System?

For me, BEST:

LSU vs. oSu. If either team wins, as long as it is a good game, the BCS has given us a new, and entertaining match up of two of the "most deserving" teams. The BCS has always loved the "deserving" based on their seasonal body of work.

WORST:
LSU vs. BAMA (caveat: only if LSU loses)
The BCS mission statement is to put "1 and 2 together in the BCSCG" right? The "best two teams" don't necessarily matter, it is who is #1 and #2 in the BCS system. I happen to believe that BAMA will get in as the BCS #2.
If LSU loses to BAMA in a rematch, the BCS Championship officially goes to BAMA, who by default then violates the BCS buzzword "deserving."

Why does a team A that loses at home to team B, and later defeats team B at a neutral site (now that both teams have identical records, and never-mind the fact that team B has a superior schedule)
"deserve" the crystal ball?

Simple answer: It doesn't. The BCS is then irretrievably broken, IMHO.
This post was edited on 12/4/11 at 4:25 am
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:28 am to
I would agree with that. Throw in there that if OSU gets left about because of the Sagarin poll which refuses to publish its formula, I expect to see an investigation/law suits. I can't believe the BCS gets away with using computer formulas that cannot be checked
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:29 am to
quote:

How did Okie state manage to avoid a bump?


Because Sagarin is the dumbest poll on the planet.
Posted by juanoLSU
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
540 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:34 am to
Haha Jeff Sagarin is a tool
Posted by loweralabamatrojan
Lower Alabama
Member since Oct 2006
13240 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:34 am to
quote:

Because Sagarin is the dumbest poll on the planet.

I get that you're miffed about Sagarin, it's a recurrent theme. I am sure part of this is that he doesn't disclose his formula, but is there another reason (or reasons) you don't like it?
Posted by jdg91878
Do overs+Opinion poll politics =MNC
Member since Oct 2010
3742 posts
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:36 am to
I hope the voters look at the facts:

BCS Top 25 wins:
Okie St - 5
Bama - 2

Conference Champs:
Okie St - Yes
Bama - No

Seems like a simple decision to put okie St 2.
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