re: LSU record next year...

Damn, so much for LSU fans having high expectations. Maybe this is what's needed for the yearly catastrophe syndrome to subside after a loss.

quote:

---

You just lost all credibility.

---

Really?
Last year
LSU #2
Arkansas #16
Ole Miss #18
Auburn #19
Tennessee #10

2008:
Rivals has
LSU #11
Auburn #20
Ole Miss #26
Tennessee #35
Arkansas #36

2007:
Tennessee #3
LSU #4
Auburn #7
Ole Miss #27
Arkansas #31

Talent Gap is not as wide as people would like to believe it is.

Average ranking of that 3 year period....

Arkansas - #28
Ole Miss - #24
Tenn - #16
Auburn - #15

LSU - #6

You also have to take into account attrition (kids that sign that dont have the grades for example) which is very high for Auburn and to some degree Tenn.

We are on average 10 spots or more better than those teams in recruiting rankings (more if you take into account attrition). Our consistancy in recruiting is FAR superior which means we have better more experienced depth at almost every position.

All 4 of those schools have had recent HC changes which also gives an uptic to thier first recruiting class. FWIW.

"So i see LSU going anywhere from 3-9 to 7-5"

get real.

quote:

---

LSU BRINGS in elite level

---

And that is why people keep bringing up TALENT. It does not gaurantee victory, but it sure as hell doesnt hurt.

Rivals Recruiting Rankings
(Team, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 [so far])
-------------------------
LSU, #7, #4, #11, #2, #4
-------------------------
vs. UNC (in Atlanta), #30, #17, #32, #9, #32
at VU, #60, #67, #90, #71, #69
vs. Miss. St., #44, #39, #44, #25, #41
vs. WVU, #52, #23, #42, #27, #27
vs. Tenn., #23, #3, #35, #10, #7
at UF, #2, #1, #3, #11, #5
vs. McNeese St., --
at Auburn, #10, #7, #20, #19, #8
OPEN DATE
vs. Alabama, #11, #10, #1, #1, #2
vs. ULM, --
vs. Ole Miss, #16, #27, #29, #18, #38
at Arkansas, #26, #31, #36, #16, #54

I think 9-3 seems reasonable.

quote:

---

at Alabama

---

The Bama game is in BR next season.

quote:

---

I see 2 games that we should have about a 90-95% chance of winning: at Vandy, Miss State

---

After this year's games against both teams, and factoring in the Miles decline, I can't see how anybody thinks we have a 90-95% chance against either of these teams. I'd put us at about 70% in both games, maybe 75% against Vandy.

quote:

---

I see 2 games that we should have about a 70-75% chance of winning: North Carolina and West Virginia

---

We are less than 50% likely to beat North Carolina, IMO, and maybe 50% likely to beat West Virginia.

quote:

---

I see 2 games that I give us about a 60% chance of winning: Tennessee and Ole Miss

---

The past two years prove we have nothing close to a 60% chance vs. Ole Miss. It would be optimistic to put our chances at 40%. Tennessee is maybe a tossup.

quote:

---

The other 4 games look like they could be tossups.

---

Florida and Alabama tossups?
Auburn and Arkansas may be close to tossups, though.

So, given these percentages, here's how you see our record next year...

1.0 + 1.0 + .95 + .90 + .75 + .70 + .60 + .60 + .50 + .50 + .50 + .50 = 8.50 wins = tossup between 8-4 and 9-3 in regular season.

And here's how I see it...

1.0 + 1.0 + .70 + .75 + .45 + .50 + .40 + .50 + .20 + .30 + .50 + .50 = 6.80 wins = likely 7-5, with about 20% chance of 6-6.

quote:

---

Looks to me like we could finish anywhere from 6-6 to 10-2

---

If we played an out-of-conference schedule like our 2009 one, I'd say 10-2 or better, going 4-0 in OOC. However, given that we're playing real OOC competition in 2010, I'd say 9-3 or 10-2.

UNC had preseason O-line problems. They played almost all second-teamers this year. Losing the seniors will not be as big as you think.

Their defense is stacked w/ scouts drooling over a few players. One is likely to declare this yr, with 2 others thinking about it.

They have a good QB, RB, and receiver and they are pretty young. The best players are JR's and younger.

The UNC game is a toss up.