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Message
re: LSU outlook for hosting a regional
Posted on 5/22/19 at 8:44 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Posted on 5/22/19 at 8:44 am to Hold That Tiger 10
I updated all RPI, SOS and Q1-Q4 wins.
I feel a little bit better about LSU's chances than I did yesterday, but a few more wins in the SECT would be much safer. Here are some major changes to note:
1. UCSB had an opponent creep into the top 50, so they are now 3-0 with Q1 wins. I'm not sure who the opponent is, but we need to hope they fall out of the top 50 by the end of the weekend. If the committee is looking for a reason to put them into the top 16, that may give them on. We need to hope they finish with zero quad 1 wins, and dropping a game or two this weekend would help help. As of now, I see UCSB in. (Edit: Just looked, and it's UC Irvine who is now sitting in that 50 spot)
2. FSU dropped out of the top 50 RPI. This helps bring down Miami and NC State a little bit. We need to hope both of these teams don't make far in the ACC tournament. Best case scenario for LSU is that only one of these two make it into the top 16.
Right now, I would put the top 16 as (my first 11):
12. Oregon St (can probably be moved into the lock category)
13. NC State
14. UCSB
15. Texas A&M
16. Miami
17. LSU
WVU is a team to watch out for. If they may a strong run in the Big 12 Tourney, they will have a resume on par with LSU's.
Illinois and Indiana are another two to keep a close eye on. I don't think either can get the resume to compare to LSU, but if the committee wants to give the Big 10 a bid, a case can be made for one of these. Indiana winning the tournament would be better than Illinois, if one of them is going to win it.
Ole Miss is trailing behind, but we don't want them finishing super strong. They do have the series win over LSU. If some of those other teams stumble, and Ole Miss has a better SECT, then it could get interesting.
The good news is that I think we are closer than we were yesterday. The bad news, is that we still have some work to do probably, if we want to control our own fate in hosting.
I feel a little bit better about LSU's chances than I did yesterday, but a few more wins in the SECT would be much safer. Here are some major changes to note:
1. UCSB had an opponent creep into the top 50, so they are now 3-0 with Q1 wins. I'm not sure who the opponent is, but we need to hope they fall out of the top 50 by the end of the weekend. If the committee is looking for a reason to put them into the top 16, that may give them on. We need to hope they finish with zero quad 1 wins, and dropping a game or two this weekend would help help. As of now, I see UCSB in. (Edit: Just looked, and it's UC Irvine who is now sitting in that 50 spot)
2. FSU dropped out of the top 50 RPI. This helps bring down Miami and NC State a little bit. We need to hope both of these teams don't make far in the ACC tournament. Best case scenario for LSU is that only one of these two make it into the top 16.
Right now, I would put the top 16 as (my first 11):
12. Oregon St (can probably be moved into the lock category)
13. NC State
14. UCSB
15. Texas A&M
16. Miami
17. LSU
WVU is a team to watch out for. If they may a strong run in the Big 12 Tourney, they will have a resume on par with LSU's.
Illinois and Indiana are another two to keep a close eye on. I don't think either can get the resume to compare to LSU, but if the committee wants to give the Big 10 a bid, a case can be made for one of these. Indiana winning the tournament would be better than Illinois, if one of them is going to win it.
Ole Miss is trailing behind, but we don't want them finishing super strong. They do have the series win over LSU. If some of those other teams stumble, and Ole Miss has a better SECT, then it could get interesting.
The good news is that I think we are closer than we were yesterday. The bad news, is that we still have some work to do probably, if we want to control our own fate in hosting.
This post was edited on 5/22/19 at 8:47 am
4
Posted on 5/22/19 at 8:51 am to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
UCSB had an opponent creep into the top 50, so they are now 3-0 with Q1 wins. I'm not sure who the opponent is, but we need to hope they fall out of the top 50 by the end of the weekend.
UC Irvine jumped 4 spots in the RPI to 50 after taking down USC. I think if they drop 1 out of 3 to UC Riverside this weekend, they'll fall out of the top 50. Only thing is, UC Riverside is not very good at baseball.
Posted on 5/22/19 at 8:55 am to RedTigerRulz
quote:
Also capable of looking like hot garbage
Not anymore. Until they look like that again I choose to believe they will never have another bad outing
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:00 am to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
FSU dropped out of the top 50 RPI. This helps bring down Miami and NC State a little bit. We need to hope both of these teams don't make far in the ACC tournament. Best case scenario for LSU is that only one of these two make it into the top 16.
This is a good point, and it brings up a weird conundrum for NC State since the Wolfpack play Florida State on Friday. A win might be needed for NC State's resume', but a loss definitely guarantees that FSU gets back into the top 50 (it is definitely FSU's last game of the acc tourney).
Add into the fact that the NC State-FSU game means nothing for ACC tournament advancement for either team and I could easily see that game going any direction. Wild stuff.
I also agree everyone should be pulling for Irvine to get out of the top 50.
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:06 am to TRbayouborn
Updating some early games that could have an effect on LSU's chances.
West Virginia leads Kansas 9-7 in the bottom of the 5th (it was 9-1 at one point)
Illinois and Maryland are tied 1-1 in the 7th
West Virginia leads Kansas 9-7 in the bottom of the 5th (it was 9-1 at one point)
Illinois and Maryland are tied 1-1 in the 7th
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:07 am to TigerCub
quote:
Updating some early games that could have an effect on LSU's chances.
West Virginia leads Kansas 9-7 in the bottom of the 5th (it was 9-1 at one point)
Illinois and Maryland are tied 1-1 in the 7th
Thanks.
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:11 am to TigerCub
UGA and aTm are still scoreless. It seems like aTm has been in a great position to score every inning, and UGA shuts them down every time.
Just had bases loaded with one out and turned a 3-2-3 double play to get out.
Just had bases loaded with one out and turned a 3-2-3 double play to get out.
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:14 am to Hold That Tiger 10
I just don’t see it. You may be right HTT10 and I respect your opinion. I just don’t see UCSB or Miami above us.
Also, A&Ms resume is so dang similar to ours I find it hard to believe they would let them in and not us especially with them having a worse conference record
Also, A&Ms resume is so dang similar to ours I find it hard to believe they would let them in and not us especially with them having a worse conference record
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:17 am to Terrific Tales
quote:
I just don’t see UCSB or Miami above us
UCSB just doesn't lose. That's hard to deny. Just my opinion, but if Irvine stays in the top 50, I think that's the excuse they need to put them in.
Miami takes a small hit with FSU dropping out of the top 50. If it stays that way, and Miami has a poor showing, I agree that LSU should be ahead of them.
quote:
Also, A&Ms resume is so dang similar to ours I find it hard to believe they would let them in and not us especially with them having a worse conference record
They are similar, and if it comes down to a situation of only one getting in, it may go to the team who has the better tournament. Geaux UGA!!!!!
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:21 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Yea that Miami thing probably helped us a lot. Miami’s Q1 record looks awful now. If I were the committee right now I would go
1. Vandy
2. UCLA
3. Arkansas
4. Mississippi State
5. Georgia
6. Louisville
7. ECU
8. Texas Tech
9. Stanford
10. Oklahoma State
11. Georgia Tech
12. Oregon State
13. A&M
14. LSU
15. UCSB
16. NC State
Maybe UCSB or NC state above us but as long as we are top 16 couldn’t care less
1. Vandy
2. UCLA
3. Arkansas
4. Mississippi State
5. Georgia
6. Louisville
7. ECU
8. Texas Tech
9. Stanford
10. Oklahoma State
11. Georgia Tech
12. Oregon State
13. A&M
14. LSU
15. UCSB
16. NC State
Maybe UCSB or NC state above us but as long as we are top 16 couldn’t care less
This post was edited on 5/22/19 at 11:28 am
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:25 am to Terrific Tales
UCLA is #1, I think pretty much hands down. Followed by Vandy and then the rest of the SEC. ECU will take a fall with their loss.
I would love to come in at 14 or better. Just stay away from Vandy/UCLA and we have a fighting chance.
I would love to come in at 14 or better. Just stay away from Vandy/UCLA and we have a fighting chance.
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:27 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Why would you put UCLA over Vandy?
And yea ECU is our if place I just copy pasted my original list and changed the bottom 4. 1 sec
ETA: out of place. fricking fingers
And yea ECU is our if place I just copy pasted my original list and changed the bottom 4. 1 sec
ETA: out of place. fricking fingers
This post was edited on 5/22/19 at 11:32 am
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:29 am to Terrific Tales
quote:
Why would you put UCLA over Vandy?
Better RPI, better record. I guess either could be flip flopped. Probably more accurate to say Vandy/UCLA is 1-2 without a doubt in the world.
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:29 am to Terrific Tales
quote:
Why would you put UCLA over Vandy?
I honestly think it's a wash at this point. UCLA has the better RPI...by 1...but a case can be made for either program.
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:31 am to ElOsoBlanco7
I bet you the teams don’t think it’s a wash lol
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:37 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Ms St is ripe for the picking tonight. I don't think they're going to throw any big arms. If we win tonight, that's a huge help but we'll still likely have to go through Vandy and Ms St again this week. I don't hate our chances against Vandy if Marceaux throws well.
Does a win against Ms St, then losses to Ms St and Vandy get us a host?
Does a win against Ms St, then losses to Ms St and Vandy get us a host?
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:39 am to DRock88
They are throwing Brandon Smith...
According to MSST posters this might be his third game ever started
According to MSST posters this might be his third game ever started
This post was edited on 5/22/19 at 11:40 am
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:40 am to DRock88
quote:
Does a win against Ms St, then losses to Ms St and Vandy get us a host?
That would put us at 20 Q1 wins. Shouldn't hurt our RPI much playing those teams either, especially getting a win. I'm not RPI expert though.
20 Q1 wins, 2-2 in the tournament would be awfully hard to deny, if you ask me. Even with that, we may be leaving it in the hands of other teams losing to help our case though. I THINK they should be in taking that path, but I don't get a vote.
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:44 am to Hold That Tiger 10
I would like to beat Miss St today and Vandy tomorrow to make it undeniable. Worry about Saturday on Saturday.
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:48 am to DRock88
quote:
I would like to beat Miss St today and Vandy tomorrow to make it undeniable. Worry about Saturday on Saturday
That would be amazing, but it will be a difficult task. LSU will be playing it's third game, with no regular starter. Vandy will be playing game 2, with I'm guessing their normal Friday night guy (unless they throw him today), but even then you are facing their #2 at worst. Anything can happen though.
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