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re: LSU Basketball with #1 Hardest SoS in conference
Posted on 2/13/12 at 12:04 pm to thunderbird1100
Posted on 2/13/12 at 12:04 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
Just trying to figure out why you think 9-7 in the SEC and 4 RPI Top 100 wins will be even close for a tourney look. Our RPI will be 55-60 at best. Our RPI is currently 78, I repeat, SEVENTY-EIGHT.
Where are you getting 4 top 100 wins? We have 3 top 50 and 4 top 100 RIGHT NOW. If we beat Moo State, Ole Miss and UGA which is all very doable, that's likely 2 more top 50 wins and 3 more total top 100 wins. If we have 5 top 50 wins that will put us in the convo with a win or two in the SECT.
Win and Opponent's Current RPI (per ESPN)Marquette: #11
Alabama: #32
Ole Miss: #50
Arkansas: #67
Potential Resume Boosting wins:
Miss State: #42
Ole Miss: #50
Georgia: #94 (a stretch but is a top 100 win as of now)
ETA: Our current ESPN RPI is 73, not 78 (not that it matters)
This post was edited on 2/13/12 at 12:05 pm
1
Posted on 2/13/12 at 12:09 pm to Sheep
quote:
Disagree with you, but only because I still believe that 9-7 and two wins in the SEC tournament will get LSU in the NCAAs.
You're delusional. Absolutely zero chance 9-7 gets LSU in without winning the SECt.
LSU has one quality win right now. One. Over Marquette. They've lost games to South Alabama and Coastal Carolina and their RPI is in the 70s. And as the OP referenced, the hard part of the schedule is behind them. Not a lot of RPI boosting games left for LSU. Still some games against low RPI teams that could still drag it down though.
quote:
top 100 win as of now
Top 100? Nobody looks at that. Record against top 50 is what plays.
This post was edited on 2/13/12 at 12:13 pm
Posted on 2/13/12 at 12:13 pm to bigpapamac
I could see 9-7 maybe being good enough if we beat Miss St and win a couple in the toruney or end up 4th somehow. I don't see 9-7 with a State loss being good enough.
Posted on 2/13/12 at 12:21 pm to SouthOfSouth
quote:
I could see 9-7 maybe being good enough if we beat Miss St and win a couple in the toruney or end up 4th somehow. I don't see 9-7 with a State loss being good enough.
We will get some RPI bump for road wins @SC (must win), @Ole Miss and @Auburn. The UT and UGA home games are must wins at home.
All 5 of those game LSU will either be favored to win or have a good chance to win. If we can knock off Moo State tomorrow and get 4 of the 5 (both home games and 2 of 3 road games) and win 1 game in the SECT then it will get interesting.
Remember, one of the things the committee always looks at is W/L in alst 10 games. Under this scenario, LSU would be 7-3 in their last 10 and would be at 20-12 (9-7) with potentially 5 top 50 wins.
Not a slam dunk but they would be in the conversation.
This post was edited on 2/13/12 at 12:26 pm
Posted on 2/13/12 at 12:32 pm to BayouWolf
Yea I agree that with a Miss St win, a 9-7 mark will at least make it interesting. Especially with a win or two in the SEC's bringing our total up to 20 or 21.
Posted on 2/13/12 at 1:14 pm to SouthOfSouth
Over the last 10 years:
The SEC has failed to get AT LEAST 5 teams in twice (2010, 2009)
Over the last 10 years:
9-7 has been lower than 5th place once (6th place, 2006... you may recall, the SEC had two Final Four teams that year.) Some seasons, 9-7 can get you third, but 5th place is usually where it puts you.
Over the last 10 years:
71 of the 80 SEC tournament semi-finalists made the NCAAs. Of the nine that didn't make it, all but three had records below 9-7. The interesting thing is that those three semifinalists (with records 9-7 or better) came in the last three seasons: Alabama @ 12-4 (
) last year, State at 9-7 in 2010, and Auburn @ 10-6 in 2009.
So, I'll take my chances that 9-7 AND two wins in the SEC tournament will get LSU to the NCAAs. Same thing I said at the beginning of the season, and the same thing I've said after every loss. Or win.
And that's still on the table after tomorrow, win or lose.
Sorry for injecting facts into your circle jerk.
The SEC has failed to get AT LEAST 5 teams in twice (2010, 2009)
Over the last 10 years:
9-7 has been lower than 5th place once (6th place, 2006... you may recall, the SEC had two Final Four teams that year.) Some seasons, 9-7 can get you third, but 5th place is usually where it puts you.
Over the last 10 years:
71 of the 80 SEC tournament semi-finalists made the NCAAs. Of the nine that didn't make it, all but three had records below 9-7. The interesting thing is that those three semifinalists (with records 9-7 or better) came in the last three seasons: Alabama @ 12-4 (
) last year, State at 9-7 in 2010, and Auburn @ 10-6 in 2009. So, I'll take my chances that 9-7 AND two wins in the SEC tournament will get LSU to the NCAAs. Same thing I said at the beginning of the season, and the same thing I've said after every loss. Or win.
And that's still on the table after tomorrow, win or lose.
Sorry for injecting facts into your circle jerk.
Posted on 2/13/12 at 1:16 pm to Sheep
quote:
If he wants to keep his job I'm doing anything possible to beat Mississippi State tomorrow night and then finish it up strong winning at least 3/5 of final 5 games.
Silly Wabbit!! If trent ain't lose his job winning 16 total games in the last 2 years then why expect him to get fired when the team has showed more than a 100% improvement this year. He's not even close to being on the hot seat so just drop it. It's not like he took over a powerhouse in bball. Between 18 and 20 wins with this year plus the whole team coming back next year. I hate 2 say it but Trent will be hear a while
Posted on 2/13/12 at 1:23 pm to Tigerfan7218
quote:
in the 5th best conference
u obviously know nothing about college basketball if u think the sec is the 5th best conference.Posted on 2/13/12 at 1:27 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
9-7 in a bad conference with 3 quality wins will not make it, sorry.
A 12 team league with 5 or 6 teams in the NC2a's does not qualify as a bad conference. LSU would have to all of their remaining regular season games to get serious consideration for the NC2a's IMO but that doesn't make the SEC a bad basketball conference. I agree that a couple more wins in non-conference would have been huge.
Posted on 2/13/12 at 1:36 pm to RANDY44
quote:
I agree that a couple more wins in non-conference would have been huge.
Reality is that optically and from a resume view, losing to South Alabama and @ Coastal Carolina are brutal. We win those two games as we are 16-8 and people are jumping for joy with Moo State coming to town.
Posted on 2/13/12 at 1:54 pm to BayouWolf
quote:
Reality is that optically and from a resume view, losing to South Alabama and @ Coastal Carolina are brutal.
That's a bigger deal for myopic LSU fans than it is for the selection committee.
Most of the teams outside the Top 15 or 20 have at least one questionable loss.
State lost to Akron (at home) which is about the same as the CC loss. Florida lost to Rutgers, Vanderbilt lost to Indiana State AND Cleveland State.
Posted on 2/13/12 at 2:11 pm to fjohns1
Wait, you people seriously think that the SEC is better than the 5th best conference? Then which one is it better than: Big East, ACC, Big Ten, or Big 12? I think the SEC is solidly the fifth best this year but it seems crazy to suggest that we're higher
Posted on 2/13/12 at 2:22 pm to RollTigers
quote:
Wait, you people seriously think that the SEC is better than the 5th best conference? Then which one is it better than: Big East, ACC, Big Ten, or Big 12? I think the SEC is solidly the fifth best this year but it seems crazy to suggest that we're higher
Look it up. You tell us.
LINK
LINK
LINK
Posted on 2/13/12 at 2:27 pm to Sheep
Computer ratings? Really? Sagarin still has the Big 12 rated higher than the SEC in football Just look at their individual team rankings and you'll start laughing
Posted on 2/13/12 at 2:30 pm to RollTigers
Seems its not crazy to suggest higher...given ESPN says we are #4 as of last week
ESPN Conference Power Rankings
Katz also thinks that the Tigers are much improved, #6 in SEC power rankings.
SEC Power Rankings
ESPN Conference Power Rankings
Katz also thinks that the Tigers are much improved, #6 in SEC power rankings.
SEC Power Rankings
Posted on 2/13/12 at 2:34 pm to RollTigers
quote:
Computer ratings?
I couldn't find "Larry's Eyeball Test Rankings."
Can you send me the link?
Posted on 2/13/12 at 2:42 pm to RollTigers
quote:
Wait, you people seriously think that the SEC is better than the 5th best conference? Then which one is it better than: Big East, ACC, Big Ten, or Big 12? I think the SEC is solidly the fifth best this year but it seems crazy to suggest that we're higher
Dude imma Duke fan and the ACC is a joke. After duke NC virginia and FSU you can throw the rest of the garbage in the trash. alabama, lsu, ole miss, arkansas and LSU better than the rest of the acc hands down.
Posted on 2/13/12 at 2:49 pm to Sheep
Just about any human rating disagrees with you. The computers boost the SEC up because of Kentucky's success. Example: conference ratings ESPN
Picking the ACC because it's fifth in several of these standings - seeding it would probably look something like (going by rankings first then power rankings)
1 KY v 1 Duke
2 UF v 2 UNC
3 MSST v 3 FSU
4 Vandy v UVA
5 UT v NC ST
6 LSU v Miami
7 ARK v MD
8 Bama v Clemson
9 UGA v VT
10 OM v BC
11 AU v GT
12 USC v Wake
If you don't see a lot of ACC wins on that matchup list, I don't know what to tell you. I think ACC would be favored in ~9 of those games. Maybe 8 or maybe 10, but around there. Only clear SEC favorites I see are KY, Bama if they get their team back, and Arkansas if they're at home.
Picking the ACC because it's fifth in several of these standings - seeding it would probably look something like (going by rankings first then power rankings)
1 KY v 1 Duke
2 UF v 2 UNC
3 MSST v 3 FSU
4 Vandy v UVA
5 UT v NC ST
6 LSU v Miami
7 ARK v MD
8 Bama v Clemson
9 UGA v VT
10 OM v BC
11 AU v GT
12 USC v Wake
If you don't see a lot of ACC wins on that matchup list, I don't know what to tell you. I think ACC would be favored in ~9 of those games. Maybe 8 or maybe 10, but around there. Only clear SEC favorites I see are KY, Bama if they get their team back, and Arkansas if they're at home.
Posted on 2/13/12 at 2:51 pm to RollTigers
quote:
Ranking the conferences: From 1 to 32
quote:
12/06/10
quote:
Now that we are into December
What year is it?
Posted on 2/13/12 at 2:57 pm to Sheep
lol. Wrong link. Anyways, you ignored my entire point of the rest of my post. Do you not think that the ACC would be favored in 75% of the games they would play against the SEC as I laid it out?
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