re: LSU Baseball - 2014 Post Season Thread

That's a Tiger Eye, FWIW

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LSU Baseball - Countdown to First Pitch: One Day!

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Fapping furiously.

The lineup is set, and the Mother Nature looks to be cooperating.

Still, Paul Mainieri has a ton to figure out this weekend and beyond. Like last year, there is no time to ease into SEC play. LSU travels to Vanderbilt for its first three league games this year just like it trekked to Starkville for a series last year.

By now you know the questions.

Who will catch? Who will close? How do you replace the leadership and production of Mason Katz and Raph Rhymes? How large is the defensive drop off from JaCoby Jones at second? What about the bullpen?

It all sounds daunting, but Mainieri and his staff have recruited very well over the last two seasons, and they’ve got a deep, talented roster ready for Opening Night.

It’s headlined by stars like Alex Bregman and Aaron Nola. Seniors Sean McMullen and Christian Ibarra have proven themselves. The outfield speed isn’t going anywhere, and that shows up every night to help out a pitching staff.

I’ve watched this team a ton since October, and I feel like I’ve got a good idea for the product you’ll see over the next four months. This will be the third year I roll out this prediction column. I try to make “bold” predictions as opposed to the easy alternatives. So far I’m four for nine which is respectable. Let’s see how I fair this time around.

5. Alex Bregman will steal 25 bases: This is bold for a couple reasons, one of which being that Paul Mainieri hates the straight steal. He prefers the hit and run. The other is that Bregman isn’t exactly a speed merchant out there. He did steal 16 bases in 17 tires last year, proving that he’s a great baserunner. I also think he probably held back on running because Mason Katz hit behind him and had the ability to hit it out and post a two-spot. This year that threat isn’t as strong. I also think Bregman is going to walk a ton this year. Mainieri trusts Bregman on the bases, and I think he’ll give him the green light at times. Maybe he gets to 25.



4. Andrew Stevenson will hit .280: As a freshman, Stevenson hit .192. You remember he hit the ball well in Omaha and carried that into the summer. He hit a few home runs this fall and really has a chance to break out this year. Thinking he’ll hit .340 this year is not realistic, but he can raise his average 90 points which would be seriously impressive. I think with his speed, new swing and rediscovered confidence, Stevenson hits .280 or better.



3. Joe Broussard leads the team in saves: I left myself a little bit of an out here. I didn’t say he would be named the closer, but I do think he’s got a chance to do that. The buzz has been around Brady Domangue and Kurt McCune, but I like Broussard’s stuff. He was up to 93 two weeks ago and has a really good slider when it’s on. He’s just got to feature better control, as does Domangue. I can still remember Broussard really coming to life down the stretch in 2012. Something tells me all of these guys will get a chance to close at some point but that Broussard’s go will stick a little longer. I think he saves the most game on the team. As Mainieri said Wednesday, his three best closers were not the closers out of the gate. Matty Ott was an unknown freshman in 2009. Nick Goody took a few outings to figure it out in 2012, and Chris Cotton was going to be the Sunday starter last year before McCune got hurt. He and Alan Dunn will figure it out.



2. No Tiger will hit 8 home runs: Last year Mason Katz hit 16. I don’t think LSU has a guy get halfway there this year. Christian Ibarra, Jared Foster, Alex Bregman and Chris Chinea can all hit the ball out from time to time, but none of those guys are power hitters. Chinea is in batting practice, but it’s never translated. Bregman and Ibarra both hit six last year. No one other than Katz or Mikie Mahtook has hit eight over the last three years. I think one of the above guys leads the team with six or seven.



1. LSU will win its first road Super Regional this year: I say this for a few reasons. One, I think this team is good enough to get to Omaha. That’s first and foremost. Two, having Aaron Nola throw Saturday of the regional and Game 1 of the Super is huge. You saw that last year. I just think I like Mississippi State and South Carolina a little bit more than LSU right now, and I’m not ready to give the SEC three spots. I feel like LSU will be a better team in June than March. It may take Mainieri a month to get things figured out, and that may cost LSU some games. I can easily see LSU being around 10-12 in the country on Selection Monday and hosting a regional but falling just short of a national seed. I can promise you that no one will want to see LSU on the other side of the bracket. Like we saw last year, once you get to Omaha, anything can happen.



So there you have it. After a dismal, frigid, damp winter, signs of spring will show up this weekend. Two of which will be the sound of Bill Franques’ voice and the smell of my first Chicken Tender Basket Sunday of the season. It’s a long 56 games, but this Tiger team is equipped to mold into a contender. They won’t win every weekend but one like they did last year, but they’ll do enough to be heard from in the postseason. Only one thing left to do now.

just trying to eat up space to get to 750 ha

don't get banned

Dont get banned, we're already -1

Ha!

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I actually agree with most of those predictions, with the exception of Broussard leading the team in saves, and that's only because I don't even have a remote clue as to what the closer situation will be. Regardless, solid analysis and predictions.

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We'll be hosting a SR and bregman wont steal 25 bases