re: LSU -3 this weekend

I got $1500 on LSU -3.5, (along with a handful of big boys playing girl's schools money line) in a parlay to return me $1640.

All joking aside, in sports odds making, history has usually shown us when you’re thinking easy “beer” money, and a line that looks so apparently off to us (amateur-public), we’re usually on the wrong side of that bet. Those odds makers are so ridiculously accurate!

But I’m so perplexed over what they’re seeing in this one to have us (or any of the premier sec teams) -3 to any pac 12 team on the road or not. They don’t make their decisions on last year’s performance, etc like column writers. They collect a lot of much more current and relative info and data, and have many contacts that poor into some very advanced prognostication formulas. They don’t just watch the flow and size and timing of wagers, they look at who’s making the big ones to help them to understand the edge.

I don’t even see them and what they run matching up well with virtually any of the key math up indicators, on either side of the ball, much less athletically. You’d think that we would literally need to have major breakdowns in scheme, tackling and turnover problems for this to be within 7. I see this as being a fairly high scoring game, but I still see this being closer to a two score difference than -3. Does anyone have any objective thoughts on what they’re seeing here at -3?

What a difference a year makes.