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re: Latest D1 regional projection

Posted on 5/28/23 at 7:33 pm to
Posted by subidc
CharlestonSC
Member since Nov 2019
3311 posts
Posted on 5/28/23 at 7:33 pm to
Or Tulane.
Posted by AUFANATL
Member since Dec 2007
4662 posts
Posted on 5/28/23 at 7:39 pm to
quote:

And they don't care what Tulane's record or RPI is.


Of course they do.

quote:

A lot of the bracket is geography-based and not merit-based.


I agree but in this case we have a tie in the geography department - Nicholls and Tulane are both neighbors of Baton Rouge. So they need to pick one team to reward with an easy bus ride and punish one team by making them fly away. Why the HELL would they reward the team that lost 40 games and has a bottom half RPI over a team that played well all year?
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 5/28/23 at 7:43 pm to
Yup. Very likely it will be Nicholls and I can't wait to see the melt on here over an average team.
Posted by DRock88
Member since Aug 2015
10045 posts
Posted on 5/28/23 at 7:49 pm to
quote:

I agree but in this case we have a tie in the geography department - Nicholls and Tulane are both neighbors of Baton Rouge. So they need to pick one team to reward with an easy bus ride and punish one team by making them fly away. Why the HELL would they reward the team that lost 40 games and has a bottom half RPI over a team that played well all year?


Correct. And they wouldn't just completely rule out sending Tulane to Wake. D1 projects E Illinois to Wake as the 4. That's not all that different in travel time than it would be for Tulane.
Posted by billfish21
Louisiana
Member since Jan 2009
1635 posts
Posted on 5/28/23 at 7:53 pm to
Aren’t seeds 1 v. 4 and 2 v. 3?
Posted by DRock88
Member since Aug 2015
10045 posts
Posted on 5/28/23 at 7:54 pm to
In regionals, yes. The super pairings are host site 1 v host site 16, etc.
Posted by AUFANATL
Member since Dec 2007
4662 posts
Posted on 5/28/23 at 8:01 pm to
quote:

And they wouldn't just completely rule out sending Tulane to Wake. D1 projects E Illinois to Wake as the 4.


D1 was wrong about that call. Eastern Illinois is 25 miles from Indiana St. They are headed for Terre Haute, guaranteed.

The 4 seeds have been determined at this point and will be allocated geographically. Tulane and others are getting on a plane.
Posted by DRock88
Member since Aug 2015
10045 posts
Posted on 5/28/23 at 8:18 pm to
I don't think D1 is usually accurate with alot of projections, that example being one of them. I was just pointing out that it's not out of the question to send Tulane far, far away...same goes for other fringe 4s. Geography is not the sole driver. In fact, the committee will sometimes throw it out the window. Geography is a driver, obviously. But a 40 loss team will and should be shafted accordingly. Tulane will go to a top 5 not named LSU.

ETA: To say "that's not how it works" as many have, as far as looking at rankings/RPI/performance along with geography, is just inaccurate. Merit absolutely matters when choosing hosts, ranking hosts, and placing teams in regionals and potential supers.
This post was edited on 5/28/23 at 8:22 pm
Posted by Locoguan0
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Nov 2017
6234 posts
Posted on 5/28/23 at 8:37 pm to
quote:

ULL is a 3 seed if they get in, easy.


They will get bumped by an inferior Arizona St.
Posted by NewBR
Member since Sep 2008
768 posts
Posted on 5/28/23 at 9:09 pm to
You can talk “40 loss Tulane” all you want, but there is a ton more talent on that team than what you get from the SWAC, MAAC, NEC, etc. champs. That’s not a great matchup for anyone.
Posted by TigerCub
Team Boxtard
Member since May 2006
21701 posts
Posted on 5/29/23 at 12:30 am to
FWIW, here's a ranking of the teams that will likely be the 4 seeds from worst to best RPI.

George Mason - 176
Tulane - 157
Florida A&M - 153
Maine - 124
Penn - 116
Eastern Illinois - 114
Central Conn. - 111
Nicholls - 108
San Jose State - 104
Ball State - 101
Rider - 99
Army - 92
Lipscomb - 90
Santa Clara - 81
Wright State - 77
Oral Roberts - 76
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
22540 posts
Posted on 5/29/23 at 12:52 am to
Tulane made some big moves upward this week too winning their tournament. They were just a borderline RPI 200 team. LSU will be very fortunate to get a draw with Tulane and really should allow us to save Skenes and Floyd for the drivers seat and regional championship games.
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