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re: Golden Nugget releases games of the year odds.

Posted on 6/10/11 at 9:17 pm to
Posted by firejohnbrady
Chocolate City
Member since Dec 2007
863 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 9:17 pm to
Saw a big time Vegas gambler, that was at the Golden Nugget today, say that LSU was one of the most "bet on" team by wiseguys. Georgia, Tennessee, Notre Dame, and Northwestern were the other 4.

Top "bet against" by wiseguys were Auburn, Moo St, Michigan, TCU, and Florida.
Posted by jcole4lsu
The Kwisatz Haderach
Member since Nov 2007
31773 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 9:20 pm to
quote:

say that LSU was one of the most "bet on" team by wiseguys

who in gods name were you talking to? lsu has been pretty notorious for not covering like a motherfricker when favored.
Posted by DocBugbear
Arlington, Texas
Member since Mar 2008
8139 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 9:32 pm to
quote:

LSU @ Mississippi State -1
Mississippi State @ Auburn -3.5
Auburn @ LSU -9.5

Something doesn't seem right even if you factor in home field.


It does if they consider home field in the SEC to be worth about 4.5 points... That would make LSU a 3.5 point favorite vs. MSU on a neutral field, and MSU a 1 point favorite over Auburn on a neutral field, making LSU a 4.5 favorite over Auburn on a neutral field. Damn...
Posted by LSUzealot
Napoleon and Magazine
Member since Sep 2003
57656 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 9:48 pm to
Wow so the first Vegas lines have us losing 3 games.
Posted by Springlake Tiger
Uptown
Member since Aug 2006
15531 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 10:27 pm to
quote:

@ Arlington, TX
LSU
Oregon -3


Thursday 9/15/2011
LSU
Miss St. -1

Say what now?

Saturday 9/24/2011
LSU -4
West Va


Saturday 10/8/2011
Florida
LSU -5.5


LSU -9.5
Tennessee



Auburn
LSU -9.5



LSU
Alabama -9






Posted by firejohnbrady
Chocolate City
Member since Dec 2007
863 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 10:34 pm to
quote:

who in gods name were you talking to? lsu has been pretty notorious for not covering like a motherfricker when favored.


You are missing the point. Professionals love this day because there is a lot of value in early season lines. Many pros will bet on a number of games in September before Vegas has figured out teams. I know I will bet on LSU in the Oregon and Moo St game where they are basically pick em games. I won't bet on the Bama game because there is way to much time between now and November.

Some lines that have already moved:
Boise @ UGA. Was -6 now -1.5
Michigan @ ND. Was -3 now +2


Posted by TheRoarRestoredInBR
Member since Dec 2004
31028 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 11:21 pm to
quote:

says that LSU was one of the most "bet on" team by wiseguys


They bet on LSU as a road dog, off a loss, and in bowl games..They bet against LSU as home chalk, home chalk vs SEC West foes not named MSU, and in reg season OOC games..yes..LSU and SEC games one way or the other are heavy action games.

That list he gave you makes no sense, without situational and season circumstances. It is totally arbitrary at best, depending upon which wiseguys, crews, and sharpies he knows.

Of the "bet on list", only NW would be a habitual dog offering value, thus a wiseguy magnet, especially in the Barnett era. When NW was an absolute ATS covering machine, they were a sharpie favorite and Computer Group regular play.

Fellow Chicagoland alumni team ND, usually heavy chalk until recent era, and usually an auto-play against ATS. Same slightly goes for SEC teams LSU & UGA, and Tenn until very recent.

That "wiseguy" sounds a wannabe or a runner for a crew out with a shopping list, at best..the real operational brains(boss, cappers, clerks,etc..) are back in the office with a load of tvs, computers, and phones.

Most of the biggest wiseguys and crews have bigger fish to fry daily than shopping these low-limits numbers months in advance(as some lines will be stealing in value..yet some others a total bust/sucker bet by actual game week).

But, him out shopping some Nugget futures may make him a decent soloist/grinder, I applaud his hustle. Most industry giants let these numbers slide past without hustling to grab them vs the younger hustlers out there shopping.

The Golden Nugget limits on these futures are a dime(1K), and three bets max, before returning to the end of the betting line.
This post was edited on 6/11/11 at 12:19 am
Posted by LouisianaSatNight
Baltimore, MD
Member since Dec 2010
913 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 11:45 pm to
I really want to take the LSU/Moo State game. How do I go about doing this?
Posted by TheRoarRestoredInBR
Member since Dec 2004
31028 posts
Posted on 6/10/11 at 11:53 pm to
That game offers limited major value at +1, depending on how LSU comes out the gates, it was probably going to be in that ballpark come gameday, and is largely a team that wins SU also covers the spread type tilt. Now has moved to LSU -3.

The one worth value, should LSU truly be what they project to possibly be, regardless of Bama with new QB being all that and a bag of chips, is the fat spread +9 at Bama, a major BCS title playoff tilt, revenge game for Tide, and Miles-Saban Part V(all four major tight tussles), it still available.

https://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=236665

https://www.covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=236540

P.S. Fla plus the now +7.5 at LSU..awfully tempting.
This post was edited on 6/11/11 at 12:11 am
Posted by fastedLSU
BR
Member since Sep 2007
4477 posts
Posted on 6/11/11 at 12:28 am to
As of right now these are only available at the GN for $1000 max bet. After a few weeks offshore books will start to carry the lines as well, though they probably won't look like the ones I posted earlier.

LSU/Bama game is played w/in a TD IMO
Posted by saintstigerschamps07
Ron Paul 2012
Member since Aug 2007
592 posts
Posted on 6/11/11 at 8:27 am to
If these lines are on bodog I'll bet the house on LSU over Oregon, LSU over Miss St, LSU over bama, and fla over LSU. All good bets to win IMO.
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