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Message
re: From 0% to 100%, what do you surmise as LSU's probability
Posted on 6/7/13 at 9:51 am to Rex
Posted on 6/7/13 at 9:51 am to Rex
Honestly, I think tonight's game tells us a lot about our chances.
Yes, Gray is special, I get that, but we are going to see several guys of this caliber in the college game the next few weeks (if we make it).
If we can't hit Gray, I can still see us winning the SR (will need Eades to do well) but I just don't see us going far in Omaha.
I'm still not sold that this team can hit consistently, bring runners home from third with less than two outs, or that Eades is a our #2 guy.
I put us at 20% today.
Yes, Gray is special, I get that, but we are going to see several guys of this caliber in the college game the next few weeks (if we make it).
If we can't hit Gray, I can still see us winning the SR (will need Eades to do well) but I just don't see us going far in Omaha.
I'm still not sold that this team can hit consistently, bring runners home from third with less than two outs, or that Eades is a our #2 guy.
I put us at 20% today.
0
Posted on 6/7/13 at 9:52 am to Rex
LSU 13%
Vandy 12%
Virginia 10%
Oregon State 9%
North Carolina 9%
NC State 9%
Cal State Fullerton 7%
Florida State 7%
South Carolina 5%
UCLA 4%
Indiana 4%
Mississippi State 3%
Kansas State 3%
Oklahoma 2%
Louisville 2%
Rice 1%
Vandy 12%
Virginia 10%
Oregon State 9%
North Carolina 9%
NC State 9%
Cal State Fullerton 7%
Florida State 7%
South Carolina 5%
UCLA 4%
Indiana 4%
Mississippi State 3%
Kansas State 3%
Oklahoma 2%
Louisville 2%
Rice 1%
Posted on 6/7/13 at 9:53 am to Rex
We got this
Posted on 6/7/13 at 9:55 am to AstroTiger
Hmmm... I can't believe I actually took the time to see if your percentages added up to 100%. 
Good job.
Good job.
Posted on 6/7/13 at 9:56 am to Rex
The odds are 5:1 on them winning. Turn that in to whatever probability you want.
Posted on 6/7/13 at 9:56 am to Rex
I made a spreadsheet just to make sure they added upPosted on 6/7/13 at 9:57 am to PurpleAndGold86
quote:i lol'd.
The odds are 5:1 on them winning. Turn that in to whatever probability you want.
Posted on 6/7/13 at 10:02 am to clamdip
quote:
i lol'd.
If he did indeed see those odds then vegas has us at 5/1 or 16.67%
Posted on 6/7/13 at 10:03 am to clamdip
1 in 8
Posted on 6/7/13 at 10:04 am to AstroTiger
im pretty sure we are 4 to 1
unc is the favorite at 3.5 to 1
unc is the favorite at 3.5 to 1
Posted on 6/7/13 at 10:05 am to clamdip
quote:
LSU is about middle of the pack out of the 8 national seeds, maybe a little higher. Avg prob is 12.5%, so let's say 15%.
Dude you are smoking crack!!!! LSU is ranked #1 in the nation by all 4 of the independent polls, the only poll ranking LSU in the middle of the pack was the NCAA which sets the seeding. 4 polls say #1 in the nation, one says #4 you figure it out.
As far as percentages to win the CWS, why don't we concentrate on winning the Super's and then ask that question. A lot of baseball left just to get to the CWS and over-looking a very hot playing OU team would be stupid. Look what happened last year when everyone thought we would run through Stoney Brook!!! Nothing more be said.
Posted on 6/7/13 at 10:05 am to redfieldk717
quote:
im pretty sure we are 4 to 1
I literally just made a bet. We are 5/1, at least where I placed my bet we are anyway.
Posted on 6/7/13 at 10:11 am to PurpleAndGold86
gotcha 
Posted on 6/7/13 at 10:11 am to redfieldk717
Shocking is the O/U tonight...8.5
Am i missing something on that?
Am i missing something on that?
Posted on 6/7/13 at 10:14 am to Rex
I would say roughly 25%.
80% chance to win the Supers
66% get out of the bracket in CWS
55% win the championship series
Odds go up if some of the bigger seeds get knocked out this weekend.
80% chance to win the Supers
66% get out of the bracket in CWS
55% win the championship series
Odds go up if some of the bigger seeds get knocked out this weekend.
Posted on 6/7/13 at 10:17 am to dandan
quote:
I would say roughly 25%.
80% chance to win the Supers
66% get out of the bracket in CWS
55% win the championship series
.8*.66*.55 = 29% but you said roughly so I'll let you slide
Posted on 6/7/13 at 10:25 am to AstroTiger
There are 16 teams left. So our chances are 6.25 percent.
This post was edited on 6/7/13 at 10:27 am
Posted on 6/7/13 at 10:35 am to Dav
quote:
So for now, pre-supers, I say 60%
Good grief. Any team that makes it to the CWS is legit and, given the nature of baseball, any team can win.
Now, we're very good this year, so I'd put our chances a little bit above the other teams, but 60%??? Come on, man.
Posted on 6/7/13 at 10:44 am to Rex
I think we have the best chance of any team left, but there are still 16 teams left. I'd say we have at least an 80% chance of beating Oklahoma. Then once we make it to the CWS, I'd say there is like a 25% chance we win it all, so that would be a 20% chance overall that we end up as champions.
Posted on 6/7/13 at 10:59 am to Rex
1,000x better than football...
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