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Message
re: Beating someone 3 times in the same season
Posted on 3/13/09 at 8:14 pm to ChuckDockery
Posted on 3/13/09 at 8:14 pm to ChuckDockery
quote:GTFO
ChuckDockery
0
Posted on 3/13/09 at 8:16 pm to Tigercat
quote:
Any sports streak's continuation odds get worse the longer the streak goes.
No they don't.
If you haven't started the season yet, then yes, the odds are more against starting off 15-0 than starting off 1-0. But if you're already 14-0, your odds of winning the next game are just as good as if you were 0-0, assuming identical opponents in both scenarios.
The only reason a longer streak is less likely than a shorter one is that it involves more games, with each one carrying a given probability of losing. So, facing that probability more times obviously makes it more likely that it'll happen at least once, even though the probability is the same in each game. But we've already faced that probability twice against State and it hasn't happened, so the probability is once again the same in this game as it was in each of the other two before they were played.
Posted on 3/13/09 at 8:26 pm to Nuts4LSU
It really depends on interpretation, here. Not disagreeing with you, BTW, just clarifying for both sides.
On the one hand, yes, the odds of continuing a streak decrease over time because it compares the overall total likelihood. For a simple example, the odds of one getting heads twice are 1/2 the odds of getting heads once.
On the other hand, though, as Nuts is saying (God that sounds awkward, nothin' against your name, man), your odds of winning an individual game are the same with each game.
One perspective takes the entire streak's odds of happening, and the other looks game-by-game. There's not anything to argue about; just two different perspectives.
Oh, and...
Someone needs to tell LSUTANGERINE this next time he says something is favored by Vegas oddsmakers.
On the one hand, yes, the odds of continuing a streak decrease over time because it compares the overall total likelihood. For a simple example, the odds of one getting heads twice are 1/2 the odds of getting heads once.
On the other hand, though, as Nuts is saying (God that sounds awkward, nothin' against your name, man), your odds of winning an individual game are the same with each game.
One perspective takes the entire streak's odds of happening, and the other looks game-by-game. There's not anything to argue about; just two different perspectives.
Oh, and...
quote:
Lines in Vegas are set to influence betting. If more people buy into B.S., of course it will influence the line.
Someone needs to tell LSUTANGERINE this next time he says something is favored by Vegas oddsmakers.
Posted on 3/13/09 at 8:58 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
The only reason a longer streak is less likely than a shorter one is that it involves more games, with each one carrying a given probability of losing. So, facing that probability more times obviously makes it more likely that it'll happen at least once, even though the probability is the same in each game.
That is exactly what I was getting at, I just didn't feel like typing that much out. You are either a better team or not, and pure luck from one game to another doesn't change based on what has happened in other games.
Posted on 3/13/09 at 9:02 pm to coachpenn
I remember when the Steelers played the Ravens three times last season and failed to win on the 3rd. Steelers almost won the Super Bowl that year too.
This post was edited on 3/13/09 at 9:03 pm
Posted on 3/13/09 at 9:23 pm to ChuckDockery
quote:
Beating someone 3 times in the same season
Dramatically drops your odds on the third try.
The entire premise of your original post is absolutly incorrect. Statistically speaking, the first two games have no baring on the outcome of the third matchup. I would like to see what statistics you might have to back up this claim (I suspect you have none). I do have some numbers, although they are from the NFL. Since the NFL and AFL merger there have been 3 instances of a team playing another team 3 times in a season, and one of the teams having a 2-0 record in the match-up. In those instances, the team with the 2-0 record is 11-6. Now, I know it's not the same sport, but I would be very confident the numbers would bare out. The team with the 2-0 record should have the advantage.
Posted on 3/13/09 at 11:52 pm to GeauxBayouBengals
quote:
the first two games have no baring/I would be very confident the numbers would bare out
Little too much time at the gold club?
Posted on 3/14/09 at 1:26 am to lsu31always
Someone with the 27,000 post in one year, is calling someone a "rantard" - now that's funny.
Posted on 3/14/09 at 2:39 am to Templars
One thing that DOES matter: tis will be State's third game in three days. That matters. LSU wins tomorrow.
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