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lostinbr
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
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re: Anyone wanting to see a graph that shows how far ahead JD is from every QB should see this
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What metric is EPA/play?

It’s an offensive efficiency metric that’s roughly analogous to points per play.

Basically they take a huge amount of empirical data and determine how many points, on average, a team can be expected to score during a drive given a specific situation (down, distance, and field position). This allows them to assign an “expected points” value to that situation.

Expected points added is just final EP minus starting EP. So if a team starts at a field position that results in 0 average points, then scores a touchdown on the drive, that’s a +6 EPA for the drive. You can divide by number of plays to get EPA/play. In that example, EPA/play should be basically equal to points per play.

EPA’s usefulness over actual points comes from the fact that it accounts for situation. So if you have a really good starting field position and score a touchdown, your EPA/play will be less than points/play because you were already expected to score some amount of points given that starting field position.

OTOH, if you start at your own 1 yard line and go 99 yards your EPA/play will be higher than points/play because the expected points value in that starting scenario is actually negative.

The other advantage of EPA/play is that it can fairly easily be determined for individual players since every snap has an EPA value even if points aren’t scored. So a guy who drives the ball 99 yards through the air but then hands it off to someone else for the TD still gets the majority of the “credit” for the drive. He also doesn’t get “punished” if the RB gets stuffed at the LOS.

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