re: According to an article posted on Death Valley Voice difference in CMM’s buyout is:

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The typical Div 2 basketball coaching contract is $110,000 or less. Some of these guys win percentages are higher than 70%. If you do think these guys or lower tier Div 1 guys wouldn’t jump at the chance to have a 2 year contract at $300-500,000 per year, you are delusional. You could get good coaches for less than we will pay to buy out $20 million contracts like CMM. Put the money you save into NIL to buy 5 good players a year and a good coach will win a lot of games. You don’t need great recruiters anymore.

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It's entirely possible some ADs/schools start to consider that approach. I do think we are going to see coaching salaries plateau (to some degree) because it's more valuable to have that money going to the players. However, that approach would probably only be good for a year or two if the D-2 coach is successful because he would, no doubt, leverage that success into a much bigger contract. See Drake's Ben McCollum. He's in year one at Drake after several years at D-2 NW Missouri St. He had tremendous success there, winning four National Titles. He's 22-2 right now with wins over Miami, Vanderbilt and Kansas St...ALL with almost an entirely new roster from last year's Drake team (comprised of mostly D-2 players). He's probably making around $400k - $500k this year. That's going to change, big time, when major-conf. schools start calling in a month or so. That means either Drake will have to double, triple, maybe quadruple his salary after just one season, or he will take a big payday from a major conf. school.

Look at guys like Gates (Missouri) and Paris (South Carolina). When they were hired in 2022 their salaries were slightly lower than McMahon's. Now, they are considerable above McMahon after getting raises/extensions following ONE good season.

Gates had an unexpectedly good season in year one at Mizzou. He leveraged that into a big extension/raise...and proceeded to go winless in the SEC the following year. Paris was almost as bad as McMahon in year one at South Carolina. He had a really good second season and leveraged it into a raise/extension. Now he's right back in the basement with McMahon.

The plan you laid out only works if you have an AD willing to call a coach's bluff after just one good season. But the reality of the marketplace it winning coaches will always be in demand and will hold most of the negotiating leverage because of it.