New signing rules and attrition

Agreed. Clearly the NCAA's attempt at parity. It will prevent the NFL talent rich schools from grabbing an extra 3-5 recruits each year to fill positions lost to the draft, and those kids will end up at 2nd tier programs.

Every 5 redshirts would bump you +1 in your 4 year cycle number, so that would certainly help a bit in maintaining scholarship numbers, but of course they aren’t available to play, so you get even thinner on depth.

I don’t think you are correctly evaluating the situation. Let’s take your scenario of 3 juniors declaring and 2 transfers every season. Then assume that you have 20 seniors that run out of eligibility (like LSU did this season and not all of those were even on scholarship), then all you have to do is sign a full class of 25 that year to get yourself back up to the full allotment of 85 scholarships. The juniors declare before the February signing period, so you can make up for them. The only time you would be in trouble
is if you have a rash of transfers after spring practice or in the summer. But more times than not, those that transfer are “processed” to make room to get below the 85 limit anyway.

I think the only way that you would really have issues is if you had a lot of seniors run out of eligibility, then a lot of juniors declare, and a lot of underclassman transfer. Then you might have some issues gettting to 85. But if you have that happen, then you probably have bigger issues to worry about.

I think staying below the 85 limit is more of a challenge than keeping 85.