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Had some fun with golf stats to predict masters:
Posted on 4/8/19 at 12:07 pm
Posted on 4/8/19 at 12:07 pm
Ran some statistical models in Minitab to try and predict the Masters winner.
To do so, I took the final leaderboard at Augusta the last 4 years and ran correlation tests against player statistics in the golf season leading up to the Masters, as well as their world ranking and Vegas odds to win going into the Masters each year.
I have been doing one off algorithms for the last 4 years just for fun to try and predict winners in my pool, but now I've got 4 years worth of the same statistics pre-Masters so I ran some correlation tests.
Anyways, the most correlated statistics with Masters success are, in order, as follows:
Vegas Odds
World Ranking
Strokes Gained
Scrambling
3-Putt Avoidance
These create the best predictive model that I found.
Using those specific stats/rankings, once weighted appropriately (Vegas odds carrying most weight), this is the predicted finish:
1 - Justin Rose
2 - Dustin Johnson
3 - Tommy Fleetwood
4 - Xander Schauffele
5 - Jon Rahm
6 - Patrick Cantlay
7 - Rory McIlroy
8 - Hideki Matsuyama
9 - Tiger Woods
10 - Francesco Molinari
11 - Jason Day
12 - Webb Simpson
13 - Tony Finau
14 - Matt Kuchar
15 - Justin Thomas
16 - Marc Leishman
17 - Bryson DeChambeau
18 - Louis Oosthuizen
19 - Kevin Kisner
20 - Rickie Fowler
21 - Cameron Smith
22 - Sergio Garcia
23 - Si Woo Kim
24 - Bubba Watson
25 - Paul Casey
26 - Phil Mickelson
27 - Adam Scott
28 - Charles Howell III
29 - Brandt Snedeker
30 - Ian Poulter
31 - Patrick Reed
32 - Brooks Koepka
33 - Matt Wallace
34 - Gary Woodland
35 - Rafa Cabrera Bello
36 - Keegan Bradley
37 - Jordan Spieth
38 - Matthew Fitzpatrick
39 - Billy Horschel
40 - Zach Johnson
41 - Kiradech Aphibarnrat
42 - J.B. Holmes
43 - Kevin Tway
44 - Charley Hoffman
45 - Keith Mitchell
46 - Tyrrell Hatton
47 - Corey Conners
48 - Charl Schwartzel
49 - Branden Grace
50 - Emiliano Grillo
51 - Danny Willett
52 - Kyle Stanley
53 - Henrik Stenson
54 - Aaron Wise
55 - Kevin Na
56 - Patton Kizzire
57 - Alex Noren
58 - Shane Lowry
59 - Eddie Pepperell
60 - Jimmy Walker
61 - Lucas Bjerregaard
62 - Thorbjorn Olesen
63 - Stewart Cink
64 - Justin Harding
65 - Andrew Landry
66 - Martin Kaymer
67 - Adam Long
68 - Satoshi Kodaira
69 - Li Haotong
70 - Shugo Imahira
71 - Bernhard Langer
72 - Fred Couples
73 - Vijay Singh
74 - Michael Kim
75 - Takumi Kanaya
76 - Viktor Hovland
77 - Alvaro Ortiz
78 - Angel Cabrera
79 - Devon Bling
80 - Jovan Rebula
81 - Mike Weir
82 - Sandy Lyle
83 - Trevor Immelman
84 - Larry Mize
85 - Ian Woosnam
86 - Jose Maria Olazabal
87 - Kevin O’Connell
*should be noted that I pulled from a list of about 15 stats. There are hundreds that the professional books/predictors use, so mine is limited somewhat.
To do so, I took the final leaderboard at Augusta the last 4 years and ran correlation tests against player statistics in the golf season leading up to the Masters, as well as their world ranking and Vegas odds to win going into the Masters each year.
I have been doing one off algorithms for the last 4 years just for fun to try and predict winners in my pool, but now I've got 4 years worth of the same statistics pre-Masters so I ran some correlation tests.
Anyways, the most correlated statistics with Masters success are, in order, as follows:
Vegas Odds
World Ranking
Strokes Gained
Scrambling
3-Putt Avoidance
These create the best predictive model that I found.
Using those specific stats/rankings, once weighted appropriately (Vegas odds carrying most weight), this is the predicted finish:
1 - Justin Rose
2 - Dustin Johnson
3 - Tommy Fleetwood
4 - Xander Schauffele
5 - Jon Rahm
6 - Patrick Cantlay
7 - Rory McIlroy
8 - Hideki Matsuyama
9 - Tiger Woods
10 - Francesco Molinari
11 - Jason Day
12 - Webb Simpson
13 - Tony Finau
14 - Matt Kuchar
15 - Justin Thomas
16 - Marc Leishman
17 - Bryson DeChambeau
18 - Louis Oosthuizen
19 - Kevin Kisner
20 - Rickie Fowler
21 - Cameron Smith
22 - Sergio Garcia
23 - Si Woo Kim
24 - Bubba Watson
25 - Paul Casey
26 - Phil Mickelson
27 - Adam Scott
28 - Charles Howell III
29 - Brandt Snedeker
30 - Ian Poulter
31 - Patrick Reed
32 - Brooks Koepka
33 - Matt Wallace
34 - Gary Woodland
35 - Rafa Cabrera Bello
36 - Keegan Bradley
37 - Jordan Spieth
38 - Matthew Fitzpatrick
39 - Billy Horschel
40 - Zach Johnson
41 - Kiradech Aphibarnrat
42 - J.B. Holmes
43 - Kevin Tway
44 - Charley Hoffman
45 - Keith Mitchell
46 - Tyrrell Hatton
47 - Corey Conners
48 - Charl Schwartzel
49 - Branden Grace
50 - Emiliano Grillo
51 - Danny Willett
52 - Kyle Stanley
53 - Henrik Stenson
54 - Aaron Wise
55 - Kevin Na
56 - Patton Kizzire
57 - Alex Noren
58 - Shane Lowry
59 - Eddie Pepperell
60 - Jimmy Walker
61 - Lucas Bjerregaard
62 - Thorbjorn Olesen
63 - Stewart Cink
64 - Justin Harding
65 - Andrew Landry
66 - Martin Kaymer
67 - Adam Long
68 - Satoshi Kodaira
69 - Li Haotong
70 - Shugo Imahira
71 - Bernhard Langer
72 - Fred Couples
73 - Vijay Singh
74 - Michael Kim
75 - Takumi Kanaya
76 - Viktor Hovland
77 - Alvaro Ortiz
78 - Angel Cabrera
79 - Devon Bling
80 - Jovan Rebula
81 - Mike Weir
82 - Sandy Lyle
83 - Trevor Immelman
84 - Larry Mize
85 - Ian Woosnam
86 - Jose Maria Olazabal
87 - Kevin O’Connell
*should be noted that I pulled from a list of about 15 stats. There are hundreds that the professional books/predictors use, so mine is limited somewhat.
This post was edited on 4/8/19 at 12:52 pm
5
Posted on 4/8/19 at 12:10 pm to TheCaterpillar
Posted on 4/8/19 at 12:12 pm to malvin
I do this stuff for valuation/m&a for my job, so I just plugged it in. Took like 10 minutes.
And yes, I can get nerdy with this stuff
I just use it as a tie-breaker when I'm picking players for my pool basically.
And yes, I can get nerdy with this stuff
I just use it as a tie-breaker when I'm picking players for my pool basically.
Posted on 4/8/19 at 12:20 pm to TheCaterpillar
Posted on 4/8/19 at 12:55 pm to malvin
So there are some names that will definitely stick out.
For example, Brooks Koepka is 4th in World Ranking and 7th in my composite Vegas Ranking.
But he is 71st in Strokes Gained, 178th in Scrambling, and 133rd in 3-putt avoidance.
So despite heavily weighting Vegas (~40%) and World Ranking (~25%), the other stats drag him down significantly.
For example, Brooks Koepka is 4th in World Ranking and 7th in my composite Vegas Ranking.
But he is 71st in Strokes Gained, 178th in Scrambling, and 133rd in 3-putt avoidance.
So despite heavily weighting Vegas (~40%) and World Ranking (~25%), the other stats drag him down significantly.
Posted on 4/8/19 at 1:38 pm to TheCaterpillar
Stats / Names / Rankings that jump out at me:
2. In the Top 20, only 4 have finished second.
Rose (twice)
Day
Oosthuizen
Fowler
3. How far down past winners are listed.
22. Sergio
24. Watson
26. Phil
27. Scott
31. Reed
37. Spieth
etc
4. Vegas oddsmakers are incredible.
5. I had to remind myself that Willet and Schwartzel won a green jacket.
quote:1. In the Top 20, only Tiger has won.
1 - Justin Rose
2 - Dustin Johnson
3 - Tommy Fleetwood
4 - Xander Schauffele
5 - Jon Rahm
6 - Patrick Cantlay
7 - Rory McIlroy
8 - Hideki Matsuyama
9 - Tiger Woods
10 - Francesco Molinari
11 - Jason Day
12 - Webb Simpson
13 - Tony Finau
14 - Matt Kuchar
15 - Justin Thomas
16 - Marc Leishman
17 - Bryson DeChambeau
18 - Louis Oosthuizen
19 - Kevin Kisner
20 - Rickie Fowler
2. In the Top 20, only 4 have finished second.
Rose (twice)
Day
Oosthuizen
Fowler
3. How far down past winners are listed.
22. Sergio
24. Watson
26. Phil
27. Scott
31. Reed
37. Spieth
etc
4. Vegas oddsmakers are incredible.
5. I had to remind myself that Willet and Schwartzel won a green jacket.
This post was edited on 4/8/19 at 1:40 pm
Posted on 4/8/19 at 2:14 pm to Mahootney
quote:
1. In the Top 20, only Tiger has won.
2. In the Top 20, only 4 have finished second.
Rose (twice)
Day
Oosthuizen
Fowler
Both immediately jumped out to me as well. Its not perfect, or else I'd be rich
quote:
3. How far down past winners are listed.
22. Sergio 23.5
24. Watson 16.5
26. Phil 21
27. Scott 21
31. Reed 25
37. Spieth 5
etc
Bolded their ranking by Vegas (1 being best odds, half rankings for ties).
Spieth is the real outlier there. Its because he's 148th in Strokes Gained, 108th in Scrambling, and 172nd in 3-putt avoidance
quote:
4. Vegas oddsmakers are incredible.
Its truly remarkable.
quote:
5. I had to remind myself that Willet won a green jacket.
I block this out of my mind like past rape victims block out the abuse.
Posted on 4/8/19 at 3:18 pm to TheCaterpillar
I like your numbers because I like Fleetwood
Posted on 4/8/19 at 5:26 pm to TheCaterpillar
There may be an opportunity for past years, and going forward, for you to adjust your weighting scale to give you better results.
Have you tried adjusting last year's tear to better approximate the final top 10?
After this year's masters, what weighting would give you a better R-factor?
Obviously, it's difficult to use statistics to predict how actual humans might perform on a given 2-4 day window. Some Zach Johnson type person might have a great weekend... or a Rory might melt down.
But I would find it very interesting what changes to the system would help optimize it.
Have you tried adjusting last year's tear to better approximate the final top 10?
After this year's masters, what weighting would give you a better R-factor?
Obviously, it's difficult to use statistics to predict how actual humans might perform on a given 2-4 day window. Some Zach Johnson type person might have a great weekend... or a Rory might melt down.
But I would find it very interesting what changes to the system would help optimize it.
Posted on 4/8/19 at 8:31 pm to TheCaterpillar
Posted on 4/8/19 at 9:52 pm to TheCaterpillar
This has a top dog feeling. DJ Rory Rahm Rose. One of these wins.
If not maybe Kuchar or CH3.
If not maybe Kuchar or CH3.
Posted on 4/9/19 at 9:50 am to TheCaterpillar
Based on the last few years' performance, there are several of these players that seem to have a good game for Augusta.
Strong Iron Play and good putting
Hitting it a mile with the driver doesn't help as much after they Tiger-proofed it. (of course it doesn't hurt)
Strong Iron Play and good putting
Hitting it a mile with the driver doesn't help as much after they Tiger-proofed it. (of course it doesn't hurt)
quote:
1 - Justin Rose
3 - Tommy Fleetwood
5 - Jon Rahm
8 - Hideki Matsuyama
9 - Tiger Woods
11 - Jason Day
13 - Tony Finau
20 - Rickie Fowler
26 - Phil Mickelson
27 - Adam Scott
31 - Patrick Reed
35 - Rafa Cabrera Bello
37 - Jordan Spieth
Posted on 4/9/19 at 10:07 am to Mahootney
quote:
There may be an opportunity for past years, and going forward, for you to adjust your weighting scale to give you better results.
I ran a bunch of different weights and the one I've got delivered the best results.
I'll keep adjusting each year as I do store these data points in the same worksheet.
quote:
Obviously, it's difficult to use statistics to predict how actual humans might perform on a given 2-4 day window. Some Zach Johnson type person might have a great weekend... or a Rory might melt down.
For sure. Also, some players just show up for the Masters, which is why the Vegas odds favor so heavily.
Posted on 4/11/19 at 10:01 am to TheCaterpillar
Hank Haney just laid down some cool stats about Master's winners.
Last 13 years, winner was in Top 10 after Round 1.
Chances are extremely low of winning with 2 or more Double birdies in the tournament.
51 of 72 GIR is a key stat.
And I think there was one about number of 3-putts being a dis-qualifier.
ETA: Oh. And Tiger has only ever won when weather played a factor.
Last 13 years, winner was in Top 10 after Round 1.
Chances are extremely low of winning with 2 or more Double birdies in the tournament.
51 of 72 GIR is a key stat.
And I think there was one about number of 3-putts being a dis-qualifier.
ETA: Oh. And Tiger has only ever won when weather played a factor.
This post was edited on 4/11/19 at 10:02 am
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