Which 2 of 3 should I start this week?

Easily David Johnson and Chris carson. Those are good matchups. Odell faces a tough matchup in Baltimore and frankly was not good at all last year.

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Odell faces a tough matchup in Baltimore and frankly was not good at all last year.

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There are a lot of layers here.

The 2019 Browns were a disaster from the start when they hired Todd Monken. They tried to install an air raid offense and were obsessed with 11 personnel (3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB) Mayfield was absolutely terrible in 11 personnel and he did not have time to do anything. They ran 84% of their plays from 11 personnel up until week 10.

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Baker Mayfield was substantially more efficient passing in
anything besides 11 personnel.
Look at the production splits in Week 1-9:
From 11: 6.8 YPA, 39% success, 69 rating, 3:6 TD:INT
Non-11: 8.6 YPA, 55% success, 115 rating, 3:0 TD:INT
Yet the Browns continued to use 84% 11 personnel and
stumbled to a 2-6 record over the first half of the season

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It was tangible on Mayfield too. It wasn’t just his passing splits which I shared earlier
that he was statistically much better than average when using non-11 to pass, but
one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL when using 11. It was the pressure and
sack rates when he was in 11 vs other groupings.
With added bodies to either directly assist in protection or give a pre-snap look like
there might be extra protection, Mayfield was sacked just once. But in 11 personnel,
he was sacked 12 times and pressured much more often. His sack rate was over
double in 11 personnel and the pressure rate was similar. He wasn’t getting the
protection and his productivity reflected a quarterback without confidence

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Kitchens was a RB coach who also coached TEs and had zero clue what he was doing. The Monken hire on top of that made this a dumpster fire. The entire roster was wasted. They were putting Mayfield in a zero win situation with their personnel groupings.

They bring in Stefanski whose entire offense is the opposite of what Baker just saw, he will immediately be better. The o line just got bolstered with Jack Conklin coming in and the drafting of Willis.

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The one bright spot for Mayfield is that he was
excellent using play-action. 37.3% of Mayfield’s yardage came off play-action, the fifth-highest rate in the league, and
was third in the league in touchdown passes (11) using play-action, which accounted for half of his touchdown passes.
Mayfield will now work with his third offensive coordinator in three seasons in Kevin Stefanski. Stefanski’s approach is
built around selling nearly every play as a run play, opening the door to build off the best aspect of Mayfield’s 2019 season

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The Browns ranked below average in league success rates per target to every position in 2019.
They were 25th in success rate targeting both their wide receivers (48%) and tight ends (46%)
and 17th targeting the running back position (44%). With big money spent on wide receivers
Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry, Cleveland went out and opened their wallets for Austin
Hooper this offseason. The Cleveland passing game will be asked to take a major step forward
in efficiency over volume in Stefanksi’s offensive scheme. No team used 11 personnel less than
the Vikings in 2019 (25% compared to a 60% league rate) while Minnesota was second in use

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Their entire passing game was a joke in 2019, basically a wash.

Everything in 2020 screams a OBJ bounceback. He was hurt all year and played in a clown offense and still dropped a 1000 yards and WR 25 finish.

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Beckham’s expectations are so high that he has made back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons end up as disappointments. Through a cocktail of changing teams, not
playing up to par, facing the league’s hardest passing schedule, and playing through a sports hernia, torn abductor, and torn rectus, Beckham closed 2019 at
WR25 overall and WR34 in points per game (12.6) while having career-lows in targets per game (8.3) and yards per target (7.8). The Browns faced 10
opponents in the top half of the league in point differential allowed versus opposing wide receiver average and had just three games against defenses in the
bottom 10.
But even in a down year through all that worked against him, he still ranked 12th overall among all wide receivers in targets (133), fourth in end zone targets
(13), 12th in expected fantasy points, and eighth in weighted opportunity rating at the position. Beckham is unlikely to receive double-digit targets per game in
this Cleveland offense such as he did early in his career with the Giants, but the injury and letdown discount on Beckham from 2019 has room to be
advantageous, especially if he ends up as your WR2 option.

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Bounce back should hit and we already have reports he killed training camp.

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Odell Beckham Jr. played the entirety of last season with a sports hernia which ultimately required surgery in the offseason.

Prior to last season, Beckham averaged 20.6 FPG throughout his entire career.

He averaged 19.2, 18.5, 18.5, 21.3, and 24.6 FPG in his previous five seasons.

Any of those numbers would have ranked top-3 at the position last year.

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On top of all of this the schedule flips the script and does a 180 from one of the worst in the league to one of the easiest in passing D.

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, they played the third-toughest schedule of pass defenses. They’re projected to
play the easiest schedule of pass defenses in 2020. The Browns played 10 games against top-15 pass defenses in 2019 and went 3-7 in those games. They
play only four top-15 pass defenses in 2020.

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