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PenguinPubes
LSU Fan
Frozen Tundra
Member since Jan 2018
5240 posts

Justin Jefferson
Where is he falling in drafts this year for people that have drafted? I want to get him, but i feel like playing with LSU fans, someone will take him in like round 8 or 9


LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
3988 posts

re: Justin Jefferson
I want to think he takes over as WR2, and he may, but I think he’s worth waiting later than the 9th for me.

Currently sitting on waivers in my league. My guy says he has a boom/bust type of year 1.


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10
kciDAtaE
Member since Apr 2017
8249 posts

re: Justin Jefferson
I grabbed him in the 11th as my 5th wr. Worth a shot if he can come close to what Diggs was doing.


Mpd31
Member since Nov 2019
1403 posts

re: Justin Jefferson
He is the 3rd string wide receiver for now and seems to be getting the rookie treatment in a run first offense. Should be drafted as late as possible


GatorReb
USA Fan
Dallas GA
Member since Feb 2009
8469 posts

re: Justin Jefferson
quote:

but i feel like playing with LSU fans


Youll have to reach if you want him then. Same as being an Ole Miss fan and dealing with the likes of Engram, DK, and Brown


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wrlakers
LSU Fan
Dallas
Member since Sep 2007
5330 posts
 Online 

re: Justin Jefferson
quote:

I want to get him, but i feel like playing with LSU fans, someone will take him in like round 8 or 9



I've played a long time. Rule No. 1, draft with your head, not your heart. That means to not reach for LSU players too early.

Back a few years ago, when Corey Webster was playing, I would draft the Giants D every year so that I would be sure to get an LSU player on my fantasy squad.
quote:

Where is he falling in drafts this year for people that have drafted?


Fantasy pros has him ranked as the 59th WR in standard scoring leagues. Bisi Johnson is past undraftable in a 12-team league. My advice, draft a defense with a favorite LSU player--should be easy as this includes Bills, Seahawks, Bucs, Cardinals, Chiefs, Ravens, Falcons, et al.

If Jefferson falls to you in the 11th, pounce.


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20
Gtothemoney
UNO Fan
Da North Shore
Member since Sep 2012
17222 posts

re: Justin Jefferson
Who’s in front of him besides Theilen?


kciDAtaE
Member since Apr 2017
8249 posts

re: Justin Jefferson
quote:

Who’s in front of him besides Theilen?


Last I heard he was working in the slot and getting reps with the 1st team offense.


wrlakers
LSU Fan
Dallas
Member since Sep 2007
5330 posts
 Online 

re: Justin Jefferson
quote:

Last I heard he was working in the slot and getting reps with the 1st team offense.


I think he's the slot receiver for sure. Bisi is unlikely see many ball unless Theilen suffers and injury.

This is not a pass-heavy offence, and Rudolph gets the looks at the goal line. Slot is usually good production, but takes volume to rack up fantasy points.


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CBandits82
Lurker since May 2008
Member since May 2012
44221 posts

re: Justin Jefferson
quote:

First round rookie WR Justin Jefferson ran 99% of his routes from the slot in 2019.

This was arguably the worst landing spot for a slot WR, as no team had a slot WR on the field running a route less often than Minnesota last year.

Their 288 slot WR routes was nearly half the team that ranked second from last.


but Diggs leaves behind a hole pretty good size hole to fill

quote:

The Vikings have 110 targets available, 14th-most in the NFL.
? Stefon Diggs' departure also opens up 47% of Vikings' air yards from last season.



quote:

Minnesota will be one of the run-heaviest teams this season after they attempted the third-fewest
passes per game last season (29.2), but Gary Kubiak’s offenses have finished in the top-10 in points scored in 11 of his 12 seaons



quote:

he wondered if he could consistently win in man coverage and when working on the outside. Jefferson will have to
play a lot more on the perimeter than he did at LSU, which is a bit of a concern since the Vikings will be among the league
leaders in two-TE sets



JJ fricked shite up in the middle of the field on short and intermediate routes, but with the run-first approach of the Vikings he is gonna be in a ton of 12 personnel and he's gonna have to win on the outside against man coverage and NFL pedigree CBs. Something we need to see if he can do, probably can do because JJ just knows how to get open. He has Bisi Johnson, BeeBee and T Sharpe competing with him, considering draft capital spent and talent he should be on the field in all 2 WR sets.

quote:

Although the Vikings are sure to retain a run-centric philosophy on offense, circumstances make them a strong objective bet to actually pass more in 2020.
Minnesota was just the 14th team since 2011 to run fewer than 500 passing plays in a season. Of the 12 other teams (the 2019 Ravens are here as well) to
have this few passing plays, 10 of the 12 ran more passing plays the following season. The average increase among those 12 teams was 65.3 passing plays
the following season with an average of 542.6 passing plays run per season by those teams.
Minnesota led for 47% of their offensive snaps on the season, which was seventh in the league and played into their offensive approach a year ago. Of those
12 teams, nine saw the percentage of plays in which they were ahead on the scoreboard decrease the following season with an average loss of an 11.0% rate
of those offensive snaps. That all culminated in an average passing rate increase among those teams of 4.8%.
Even if we bump up the arbitrary passing play total to teams that ran fewer than 550 passing plays over that stretch, 86.4% (51-of-59) had a spike in passing
plays the following season with an average increase of 56.3 passing plays the following season. We know the Vikings want to run the football and are unlikely
to be among the league leaders in dropbacks in 2020, but they are a solid bet to not have the same game script from a year ago and will throw more this
upcoming season regardless of mindset.


Some metrics also have the Vikings almost assuredly throwing more this season than they did in 2019.

JJ is a fascinating prospect in trying to find out his rookie production for 2020 for sure.



Mpd31
Member since Nov 2019
1403 posts

re: Justin Jefferson
quote:

Who’s in front of him besides Theilen?



Bisi Johnson is ahead of him and it is expected that they will run more two tight end sets which make sense if you are going run heavy. That means you will see more Thielan, Bisi, Rudolph, and Irv Smith on the field. Similar to what the rams did at the end of last season


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GynoSandberg
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Jan 2006
67476 posts
 Online 

re: Justin Jefferson
I liken Justin Jefferson to Michael Thomas’s rookie year

It makes too much sense but people will try and talk themselves out of it. Rookie WRs are tough but when you have available targets, no competition, and an accurate QB, it works. Don’t overthink it.


GynoSandberg
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Jan 2006
67476 posts
 Online 

re: Justin Jefferson
Vikings already ran the 2nd most 12 personnel in the league last year. Irv Smith is a threat to the declining Kyle Rudolph’s targets

The only question w Jefferson is, is his skill set redundant to Theilen? Jefferson ran all his routes out of the slot last year, and Theilen is an elite slot guy. So if they’re running 12 personnel 30% of the time, they may have a field stretcher next to Theilen as one of the two WRs


Mpd31
Member since Nov 2019
1403 posts

re: Justin Jefferson
It has already been reported that Bisi is going to start in two wide receiver sets and 51 percent of the Vikings pass plays came out of that formation. I’m not knocking Jefferson. He is talented and may play more Of a role as the season goes on but this is what the offense looks like as of right now with the information provided so expectations should be tempered. There is nothing wrong with taking a late round flier on him


GynoSandberg
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Jan 2006
67476 posts
 Online 

re: Justin Jefferson
Kevin Stafanski was the OC last year. Gary Kubiak has already said they will run more 3 and 4 WR sets

And depth charts for WRs mean very little
This post was edited on 9/7 at 6:33 pm


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30
CBandits82
Lurker since May 2008
Member since May 2012
44221 posts

re: Justin Jefferson
quote:

has already been reported that Bisi is going to start in two wide receiver sets


WR depth charts mean almost nothing


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30
TheWalrus
LSU Fan
Somewhere
Member since Dec 2012
27446 posts
 Online 

re: Justin Jefferson
Maybe I’m biased because I watched him so closely at LSU but I expect big things from him. I think he will be a solid WR3 by mid-season.
This post was edited on 9/7 at 7:13 pm


GynoSandberg
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Jan 2006
67476 posts
 Online 

re: Justin Jefferson
quote:

I think he will be a solid WR3 by mid-season.


This is probably best case. I don’t think he will come out the gate gangbusters, but as he gets acclimated he will be useful. Just a guy to monitor all year as he may get dropped early on out of frustration.


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Double Oh
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2008
11450 posts
 Online 

re: Justin Jefferson
Got him in like Rd 12-13


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TheWalrus
LSU Fan
Somewhere
Member since Dec 2012
27446 posts
 Online 

re: Justin Jefferson
I’d wait and see before starting him though


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