re: FSBDL Slow Draft

Long fantasy post while I sit on the shitter to get the day kicked off

Summary for the TL;DR crowd: Jose Abreu will decline to Adrien Gonzalez levels this season and is a pretty big reach if you're drafting him in the first round. Expect a solid .285/25 HR season, but not a first round draft pick equivalent season for a 1st baseman. He will end up being around the 5th best fantasy 1st baseman when this year is said & done.

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So I listened to a very interesting radio conversation last night on the Sirius fantasy sports network. I only tuned in about halfway through, unfortunately, but I got the gist of it. Every year for the past decade, the host picks one player that he expects to have a huge decline from one fantasy season to the next based on studying the advanced statistics of said player. Of those picks, he's been right 9 out of 10 times. For example, by looking at his advanced stats, he predicted Chris Davis to not only decline, but flat out crash last season. This year's prediction: Jose Abreu should not be drafted in the first round. Period.

His "evidence" on Abreu really only boiled down to two categories (at least that's the only evidence I got to listen to by the time I tuned in): fly ball:ground ball ratio and homerun:fly ball ratio. Jose's FB:GB ratio was extremely low for a power hitter at around 37%. For comparison, all other players with 30 HRs or more last season were in the mid 40's or higher. So Jose hits a lot more ground balls than your traditional masher; however, that ratio was offset due to Jose's unrealistically high HR:FB ratio which was at 27%. So almost one out of ever 3.5 fly balls that he hit over the course of the season ended up being a HR. Again, for comparison, this number for the average major leaguer is around 10% with good power hitters getting close to 15% for a season. So you can see how this number is inevitably going to drop. The history of baseball statistics proves this high of a HR:FB ratio is unobtainable for more than the occasional flukey season.

Jose had an almost superhuman two months of the season (April and June) with a HR:FB ratio at 37%. For the record, he hit 20 of his 36 HRs in those two months alone. In the remaining four months of the season, that ratio dropped to a closer to league average number of 13% and he only hit 16 HRs in those remaining months combined. Now it isn't unusual for a power hitter to have an "on" month in which he hits 10 HRs in a month (a few players do it ever season). But it is unusual for a guy who hits as many ground balls as Jose does to do it, let alone do it twice in three months.

Now the AGon comparison is based on a worst case scenario for Abreu in which his ground ball % stays the same and his HR % drops to closer to league average. There is the possibility that he can decrease that ground ball shift and start hitting more fly balls. That would somewhat offset the inevitable decline of the HR %, but ultimately only push him to 28 - 30 HRs if all other things stayed the same. That would still leave him behind Edwin Encarnacion in power numbers and Edwin isn't being drafted until the beginning to middle of the 2nd round in most redraft leagues. Also, Edwin puts up his numbers while very rarely ever playing 140 games in a season. Jose would have to stay relatively healthy for the full season to surpass 30 HRs again based on his percentages.

Summary #2: Bottom line according to this radio host: Don't draft Abreu in the first round of redraft leagues this season. You'll be disappointed if you're chasing 30-plus HRs again.

ipad

EArl= drew storen

gyno= dylan bundy

Yeah, I love numbers analysis but sometimes you can get over-infatuated with them. Abreu is a hell of a hitter.....period. I don't need numbers to verify that.

I picked (Drew Storen). Gyno up.

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It probably was Ray.

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He is such a blowhard. He is obsessed with being right on a guy, but he will always play both sides of the fence in his analysis so he can gloat either way.

Take Abreu..He hit 36/107 last season. Of course he will "regress", more than likely. If Abreu hits 30/95, Ray will say "I told you so". And if he hits 35 bombs, he will say he said that Abreu could have another great season if X or Y happened.

Dude talks out of both sides of his mouth. I cant stand him

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A high infield fly ball % for instance is something that would be vastly more concerning

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Yep. See Moustakas. I texted Boo.

frick Moustakas & frick Hosmer

Yeah, I've noticed this a lot over the past year or so. I used to like him because he was always good at responding to tweets. I've realized that was all he was really bringing to the table.

I'm pretty used to being late to the party on my draft picks so I'm prepared to be disappointed if he's right.

Brady after he threw 50, Chris Davis last year, sure there were more

He was raking towards the end of the year. That is the guy we will see this year. Beleven that.