re: 2024 NFL News & Notes Thread

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I snagged daniels as my backup. Hoping he is him.

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I don't have concerns about his performance, but only about him staying healthy. He's the smoothest runner I've seen at QB and developed a good deal of accuracy as a passer. He also made really good decisions (other than never sliding).

Dotson traded from WAS to PHI

Must-Have Fantasy Football Draft Picks
FantasyPros Staff

Drake London (WR – ATL)
It’s time for London to fly. His upside this season is massive in what should be a revamped offensive approach with Kirk Cousins under center and Zac Robinson calling plays. Last year, London’s numbers were passable but not amazing, as quarterback play held him in check. The Falcons’ quarterbacks posted the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate and the third-lowest catchable target rate.

London still posted 1.98 YPRR (32nd) while ranking 27th in FD/RR and top 25 in first read share (20th) and target share (25th). After reexamining his 2023 film, I do not doubt that the same player who posted monster numbers as a rookie is still here. London realizes his massive potential this year. Enjoy the breakout.
– Derek Brown

Christian Watson (WR – GB)
Watson has an ADP outside the top 40 at wide receiver, presumably because drafters are worried about (1) his target competition and (2) his balky hamstrings.

Watson recently saw a specialist about the hamstring issues and has expressed confidence that adjusting his training routine will solve the problem. As for the target competition, it’s worth noting that in games where Watson, Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs were all healthy last season, Watson had a 27% target share, Reed a 22% share, and Doubs an 18% share. And Watson’s targets tend to be high-value targets. His average depth of target was 13.8 yards in 2022 and 15.6 yards in 2023.

Watson is 6-foot-4 and has sub-4.4 speed. He scored eight touchdowns over a four-game span as a rookie, and he scored four touchdowns over a three-game span last year. This is talent worth betting on, especially at a bargain price.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)
Tyreek Hill will be at the top of nearly every single 2024 fantasy football draft, whereas Jaylen Waddle will be drafted much later after his worst professional season to date. WR34 overall and WR24 in points per game. But the Miami speedster still managed over 1,000 receiving yards in just 14 games given his top-10 touch per snap rate. The issue was he scored just four times. But his 24% target share was still excellent. He also posted his highest yards per route run (6th) and PFF receiving grade of his career (fith). Simply put, no offense puts their players in a better situation on a per-play basis than Miami – at least when the weather permits. Expect this offense to cook with matchups against the Jaguars, Bills, Seahawks, and Titans to kick off the season. Three of those matchups are home games before they go on bye in Week 6. All in all, Miami’s schedule through 12 weeks per Sharp Football is the second easiest in the NFL.

Waddle is a sharp buy-low candidate in a high-powered Dolphins offense. Three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with two top-13 WR finishes on his resume.
– Andrew Erickson

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
My No.1-ranked RB in fantasy football this season is Breece Hall. If I hold a mid-first-round pick, the Jets third-year RB will almost certainly be my selection.

Through 18 weeks of NFL action, Hall finished second among all RBs in yards from scrimmage, first in receptions (76), targets, receiving yards and seventh in points per game (14.9). Don’t forget that in his final game in Week 18 of the 2023 season, Hall totaled 39 touches for 190 yards and 1 TD to snap the Jets’ losing streak to the Patriots. Hall rushed for 178 rushing yards against the No. 1 run defense in the NFL. Mic drop.

And all of his 2023 accolades came despite ranking second-to-last in rushing success rate (39.5%) on fewer than 300 touches (299, seventh). The situation was horrible, and Hall still found a way.

Keep in mind that in addition to quarterback Aaron Rodgers missing essentially the entire season, the offensive line sustained the second-most injuries. With Rodgers back under center and healthy/upgraded OL after the additions of Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, John Simpson, and Olu Fashanu, the sky’s the limit for Hall’s ceiling in 2024. A reminder that he will turn 23 years old at the end of May.

The reason I prefer Hall over the other top-3 RBs – Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey – comes down to projecting health. As previously stated, the Jets are massively overdue for better injury luck in 2024. Meanwhile, the other top RBs may not be so fortunate.

The Falcons were the healthiest offense last season. Neither of their RBs missed time with injuries (Bijan’s headache game withstanding).

The 49ers were the fourth-healthiest team in 2023 – second overall on offense behind only Atlanta. For the first time in 10 seasons, they ranked above 20th in adjusted games lost – a metric to quantify losses felt by NFL injuries in a similar way to DVOA by FTN’s Aaron Schatz. McCaffrey is also coming off leading the NFL in touches. Only two RBs finished as RB1s the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013. Ezekiel Elliott is the only one over that period to finish inside the top 5.
– Andrew Erickson

Brian Robinson (RB – WAS)
Brian Robinson has been disrespected this offseason. The arrival of Austin Ekeler and a rushing quarterback has everyone burying him in the ranks and poking holes in his 2024 outlook. Well, I’m not riding that train to Obivioin. Robinson is underrated on multiple levels, especially after what he put on film and paper last year. His 2023 overall stat lines don’t portray how good he was last season. Robinson was the RB14 in fantasy points per opportunity and the RB22 in fantasy points per game. He also stood out in efficiency categories, ranking 22nd in explosive run rate and 13th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data).

In the 12 games in which he played at least 40% of the snaps, Robinson averaged 15.5 touches and 77.9 total yards per game. He quietly displayed a three-down skillset last season, proving that he can play on passing downs, ranking fifth in yards per route run and 12th in PFF’s pass-blocking grade (minimum 20 targets and 50 pass-blocking snaps). Robinson will be the clear favorite for early-down and red zone work, and he should eat into Ekeler’s routes in the passing game. He’s a rock-solid RB2 that could outpace that ranking.
– Derek Brown

Chase Brown (RB – CIN)
At worst, Brown is likely to be the primary passing-down back in Cincinnati’s post-Joe Mixon backfield. But are we absolutely certain Zack Moss is going to be the main early-down back for the Bengals?

Moss was terrific for the Colts early last season while Jonathan Taylor was on injured reserve, perhaps benefitting from the rushing threat posed by QB Anthony Richardson. But from Week 6 on, Moss averaged 3.6 yards per carry and wasn’t nearly as effective. Moss has never been much of a pass catcher.

Brown looked terrific last season in a very limited role (especially as a pass catcher), and he’s capable of handling a heavy load if the Bengals determine that he’s their best RB option. Brown averaged 27.3 carries a game and 29.6 touches a game in his final college season at Illinois, finishing with 1,883 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns in 12 games.

If Brown is only a passing-down/change-of-pace back for the Bengals, he’s fairly priced at his middle-round ADP. But there’s enormous profit potential if the Bengals take a look at Moss and decide they prefer Brown, who’s younger, faster and a better pass catcher.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

A Richarson’s ADP is the 5th round which seems high. In a 12 team 1 QB leave, would you take him if he falls to the 7th round?

Seems like J Fields in the 4th/5th round last season all over again.

Ceedee got paid

All shareholders can relax