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re: Why did the predictions miss so badly?
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:29 pm to Lsuhoohoo
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:29 pm to Lsuhoohoo
quote:
Why did the predictions miss so badly?
The polls missed so badly because the press had already ordained Hillary as the winner and so were reluctant to look into poll weightings, the obscene difference in rally attendances between the two candidates and messaging (explained below).
Trump won by breaking the blue wall of the Rust Belt and he did so with two messaages:
1. Your lives have gotten tougher because the jobs left because of NAFTA (which Hillary's husband passed)
2. The only time the Democrats give a damn about you is when it's time to vote for President
Hillary had no defense against #1 as she gave full-throated support to NAFTA for years and she pretty well proved #2 by damned near ignoring the Rust Belt states of WI and MI.
To a lesser extent he also went after the Black vote with his campaigning on the dangers of having to live in inner-cities and how they too were ignored by the DNC until elections came around. At most she brushed off the charge but never actually addressed it. That, I believe, came across as insulting to many who may not have gone so far to vote for Trump but instead stayed home to not vote for her.
0
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:39 pm to Hugo Stiglitz
quote:
poorly educated white women
Yet, in your jeremiad you say:
quote:
He was chosen by the heart and soul of America, the working class people that feels our government has abandoned them. They want a president that sends a very clear and powerful message to the elites on both sides that everyday Americans can not be ignored anymore and if they are ignored, there will be consequences. I find myself oddly reassured that the American people hold this power and can exercise it when needed, like last night.
"You've done enough. Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency?"
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:40 pm to Hugo Stiglitz
quote:Good God. The friggin propaganda never ceases.
Trump from poorly educated white women
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:43 pm to Lsuhoohoo
The polls missed because even if you were a perfect saint pollster, you had a problem.
Polling requires two things. 1) Very good polling technique and 2)Good models.
Good models are, by necessity, a bit of an art form and are largely based upon prior data.
I submit that this election, Trump wasn't really running as a "Republican" and as such, the models got weird.
At that point, pollsters had to guess as to what effect Trump's differing politics would have on their models.
Guessing is......by definition.....a challenge.
Polling requires two things. 1) Very good polling technique and 2)Good models.
Good models are, by necessity, a bit of an art form and are largely based upon prior data.
I submit that this election, Trump wasn't really running as a "Republican" and as such, the models got weird.
At that point, pollsters had to guess as to what effect Trump's differing politics would have on their models.
Guessing is......by definition.....a challenge.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:49 pm to Hugo Stiglitz
quote:
The big factor was the undetected turnout for Trump and the flip back to Trump from poorly educated white women.
Another Democrat Lie.
For years you guys play both sides of the fence.
You claim Repubs only have support of the rich, but they traditionally get working middle class voters as their biggest demographic
You constantly say uneducated white voters
But as it has been proved over and over again Educated White voters typically vote Republican
The only two groups of "educated white voters", Who typically vote democrat are the self loathing social justice types, who don't get degrees in things that actually matter.
Degrees that actually can help you get a Real Job that produces anything.
The other group is typically the OVER EDUCATED that still don't have Jobs that produce anything.
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