re: Which State's result was the most surprising to you?

Michigan.

I didn't pay attention to the fact that Hillary didn't even acknowledge to the state until near the end (and this was despite the DNC people on the ground there begging her campaign for at least a month to get here there to shore up the base). I think that was a YUUUGE contributor to Trump's win as it fed directly into his "the Democrats don't care about you, except during election years" narrative to unions and blacks.

Considering the effort Hillary was pouring into PA and the difference in rally attendance numbers between hers and Trump's rallies in the last couple of days of the race, I knew PA had a good chance of flipping (otherwise Hillary would be on offense somewhere like Florida instead of playing Defense in her own back yard).

Similar for NC. They had rallies all across the state and while Hillary drew hundreds, Trump drew thousands. That big of a difference that often means excitement for one candidate and none (or little) for the other.