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Posted on 11/9/16 at 8:50 pm to PaperTiger
quote:
Fox news reported this morning that the trump campaign used a new way of polling
Go District by district, isolate the "swing districts" and hammer them.
Forget swing states, if you can swing a few districts you can swing nonswing states.
It was revolutionary and intelligent and Trump nailed it.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 8:52 pm to NimbleCat
quote:I think the information is useful, but it seems that it would only work for well for certain segments (non-transient; established neighborhoods).
They asked each person polled how their neighbor was voting. Their data stated that a person who said their neighbor was MAGA,
Granted this would be a Trump leaning segment.
The more I think about it this, it may be quite useful for the rural population since this it's a harder segment to reach en masse.
Very specific usage, but potentially quite valuable.
This post was edited on 11/9/16 at 8:53 pm
Posted on 11/9/16 at 8:52 pm to PaperTiger
Perhaps, but allegedly Kellyanne Conway pegged them with a 54% chance of victory. 538 had them at ~30%.
I'm pretty confident that no one had any realistic data to back up what actually happened.
I'm pretty confident that no one had any realistic data to back up what actually happened.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 8:53 pm to PaperTiger
Ahem...I called PA for Trump weeks before the election.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 8:56 pm to NimbleCat
quote:
They asked each person polled how their neighbor was voting. Their data stated that a person who said their neighbor was MAGA, was a strong indicator the person polled was also MAGA. It was easier for a person to deflect their preference on their neighbor.
You are correct. The polling company that used this technique was called Trafalgar. They found a way to spot inconsistencies to determine whether or not someone was being truthful in their responses. When they spotted these inconsistencies they asked them if they knew who their neighbor was voting.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 8:56 pm to BeeFense5
quote:The model that gave Trump the best chance, including a popular vote-EC split?
Libs used that bum Nate silver's models.
In fact, Nate was arguing for Trump's approach (going to rust belt) and questioning Hillary's (going to Arizona) based on his model.
The Hillary campaign should have listened to the bum.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 8:56 pm to PaperTiger
new way of polling
Toddy will be in this thread
Toddy will be in this thread
Posted on 11/9/16 at 8:58 pm to Blizzard of Chizz
quote:
They asked each person polled how their neighbor was voting. Their data stated that a person who said their neighbor was MAGA, was a strong indicator the person polled was also MAGA. It was easier for a person to deflect their preference on their neighbor.
It was the Trafalgar polls. They used the "who is your neighbor voting for", and it certainly unlocked a hidden Trump vote. I posted my findings before the election in another thread. LINK FWIW, these polls were also pretty close too on how AA and Hispanics would vote across the board.
This post was edited on 11/9/16 at 9:03 pm
Posted on 11/9/16 at 9:02 pm to PaperTiger
But but but but Trump fired his pollsters....
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