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re: Israel vs Alabama. Covid

Posted on 8/22/21 at 9:23 am to
Posted by AUstar
Member since Dec 2012
17120 posts
Posted on 8/22/21 at 9:23 am to
CDC's data don't show that. Quote from a recent CDC study looking at 10,000,000 New Yorkers:

quote:

During May 3–July 25, 2021, the overall age-adjusted vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization in New York was relatively stable (91.9%–95.3%). The overall age-adjusted vaccine effectiveness against infection for all New York adults declined from 91.7% to 79.8%.


So, protection against hospitalization is still above 90% (didn't change with Delta). However, Delta has decreased vaccine efficacy against infection. Went from 91% down to 80%. CDC Study

Another CDC study looked at mRNA efficacy against hospitalization in adults. They looked at 1,129 patients in hospitals in 18 states. They monitored them for 24 weeks. From 2-12 weeks, the efficacy was 86%. From 12-24 weeks the efficacy was 84%. So essentially the same. This shows that the vaccine is still over 80% effective at 6 months (in regard to hospitalization). LINK

Posted by RiverCityTider
Jacksonville, Florida
Member since Oct 2008
4811 posts
Posted on 8/22/21 at 9:40 am to
quote:

During May 3–July 25, the overall, age-adjusted VE against hospitalization was generally stable from 91.9% to 95.3% (Figure 2) (Table). The ratio of hospitalizations to cases was moderately lower among fully vaccinated (13.1 hospitalizations per 100 cases) compared with unvaccinated (19.0 hospitalizations per 100 cases) groups.


"The ratio of hospitalizations to cases was moderately lower among fully vaccinated (13.1 hospitalizations per 100 cases) compared with unvaccinated (19.0 hospitalizations per 100 cases) groups."

Here is another

quote:

 symptoms, was limited. However, a supplementary analysis found that among 1,271 fully vaccinated adults and 7,308 unvaccinated adults, 545 (42.9%) and 4,245 (58.1%), respectively, were reported to have been admitted for COVID-19 by hospital staff members using nonstandardized definitions


And finally, this caviat...

quote:

However, VE against infection appears to have declined in recent months in New York, coinciding with a period of easing societal public health restrictions††† and increasing Delta variant circulation (8). These findings support a multipronged approach to reducing new COVID-19 hospitalizations and cases, centered on vaccination, and including other approaches such as masking and physical distancing.


Which is basically an admission that the effectiveness has wained as Delta infections have grown.

And that is a major issue with this study. It was performed as infections were shifting from the old strain to the new.

Secondly, there are currently 3 million unvacinated people in Alabama. There are 1.8 million unvaxed in Israel.

Alabama has a significantly more obese population and a significantly older population.

Further, it is logical to assume that, given an 80% vaccination rate in Israel, there are considerably fewer opt outs among adults, considering the predominant anti vax skepticism in Alabama

So, adjusting for all this, why are current death rates virtually equivalent?
This post was edited on 8/22/21 at 9:59 am
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