re: Better yet, who knows what % of positive cases end up in hospital?

In Arkansas, low vaccination rate, there is an estimated 23,000 active cases with 1,240 covid positive admissions, 271 of which are on vents.

In NJ, fairly high vaccination rate, there are an estimated 30,000 active cases, 626 hospitalizations, with 47 on vents.

So it appears to be about 2-6%. Of course a lot of people have severe illness at home, many receiving supplemental O2.