Are we at the start of a new Bubble with New Opportunities?

Just my two cents... Let me know what you think and interject anything you have to add to this. This piece is a mere matter of opinion. This is not financial advice nor am I a financial advisor. I am just someone transitioning back to normal stock plays from Covid restrictions being lifted and last year's plays for the dip having played out with liquidity on the side lines. Any feedback is appreciated. I am interested to see other thoughts.

I believe the 2021 Market is heavily overvalued. But there is always money to made somewhere.

Root Cause of overvaluation: Stimulus, governmental supplemental spending, interest rates, Feds Printing and inflation (due to free money, shortages and restrictions)

*** Current Inflation ***
People Hedged by Precious Metals and Real Estate, which creates bubbles for all of the above due to higher prices.

*** Low Interest ***
Low interest rates to speed the economic recovery and continue expansion. Low Interest rates also caused an increase in home buying. This coupled with the rapidly increasing prices of various commodities leads to people buying the same houses at the higher prices with their same income. Thus, they are overleveraging. Banks are already exposed to the risks, and are taking more risks.

There is 3.4 Million homes in May – Mortgages at least 30 days past due or in foreclosure. I am attempting to locate this report again from HUD - I believe. The high home values and unstable times make me believe people are likely buying houses they can not afford with the inability to refinance loans due to depreciation once the inflation stabilizes somewhat.

Thus, I am speculating there is a Housing crash likely. I believe it may sustainable though due to high demand to off-set the high supply. This crash does not help the corporate builders and developers! I am betting against corporate developers with PUTs for 2023 – IF THERE IS NO INFRASTRUCTURE BILL PASSED.

*** The Feds and Government ***
The Government spending to stimulate the economy is great, but it also raises inflation. There is the high potential of increasing taxes with current administration for other reasons, but it helps to counter inflation and spending by removing "free money" from the economy. We also know the Feds have been printing insane amounts. When I refer to free money, I am referring to the additional funds created by the Feds and Government in order to attempt to stabilize the economy.

Nevertheless, the economy is still somewhat stagnant due to weariness and shortages of supplies/labor. I am expecting infrastructure stimulus package, as a to counter the free money approach, to help stabilize the economy for jobs and new economic growth, which kicks the market crash trash can down the road that some are waiting for. Thus, wages rise to allow workers to afford the pricing of current items. I also am expecting commodities to stabilize somewhat as a result...


*** Interest Rates ***
I believe the Feds likely to raise the interest rates to counter inflation, if they see the reverse repos aren't as successful as they had hoped. Banks, brokerages and insurance companies fair this storm rather well. Yet, People with flexible rate mortgages and loans may wet the bed. It will not harm anyone people with seemingly stable jobs as well as fixed interest rates on their debt as much.


*** THUS A NEW BUBBLE BEGINS ***
1) Retail Recovers
2) Finance Booms from Higher interest rates
--(A) Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Lemonade?
3) real estate booms
--(A) Furniture and Appliances revenue boom (Maybe Whirlpool?)
--(B) Real estate operations boom (Zillow, Opendoor and Offerpad)
--(C) Commercial Real Estate Recovers as (Any potential picks?)
4) Auto manufacturing booms
--(A) Electric Vehicles (Ford, Workhorse, Nikola, Lucid, and Lordstown)
6) Chip Shortage Continues, Even HIGHER REVENUES as this has became its own commodity. (Nvidia, AMD, Intel, ASX, ASML)
7) Tech relevant to self-driving cars booms (Blackberry, Alphabet, Apple, etc)
8) Green Tech/Utilities Booms with current admin’s policies (Any recommendations?)
9) Oil and plastics prices rising (Shell, Exxon, Dupont, Dow and Chevron to make record profits again)
10) Travel and Vacation Booms (ABNB, Cruise Lines, Airlines, Vail Resorts)
11) 5G Tech gains and expansions continue
--A) Nokia manufactures 5G equipment now, and has potential to replace its China-based Competitor,