CajunCraftsman225

you seem like you are knowledgeable enough to make something like Gamestonk Terminal work. Someone shared it with me on my discord group. I know nothing about it though.

https://github.com/GamestonkTerminal/GamestonkTerminal

I'm liking IEA and how they maybe a builder that benefits from the infrastructure bill agreement talks. Following for ETF suggestions.

Has anyone looked into INDI any? It seems it may have potential eventually

On the subject of dividend stocks

I like:
utilities (NEE, WM and ETR)
Industrials (Olin, Dow, Dupont and Exxon)
REITS (CIM)
Transportation (ODFL and ATCO)

AND A GOOD INDEX FUND FOR THE DOW 30 or S&P 500 could never hurt. Warren Buffet believes in them based on what he has seen over his lifetime as they are a great long term investment (20 to 40+ Years,) but Michael Burry sees Intermediate negatives of them currently (2 to 4 years)... JUST BE CAUTIOUS of Market Dips and Fundamental Overvaluations.

I was thinking this too. . . But I do not think this will happen in the next month or two. On the subjects of your thoughts: I think we are looking at early next year, or possibly this year due to external factors in politics. If they develop some form of stimulus for infrastructure, it may create a bubble effect - as if we were not already there. Thus, kick the inevitable down the road.

My Reasoning:
People are looking to move out of the big cities now that working from home is a liable option, as well as escape the potential for riots and further unruly political policies that some are opposed to out of desire to have a normal life again. The prices just are not there for the families looking for a nicer home in the same area. Then again a $400k home in some areas is the equivalent a $4 million home in some of these big cities. Thus the prices that you and I see as inflated, others are thinking they have found a deal. I also think this will subdue any form of housing crash... HOPEFULLY. I do however think the governmental forbearance and magnitude of mortgages that are a minimum of 30 days past due will have an adverse effect. In Fact, I think a "housing crash will create the supply of homes that the typical family is looking for at the prices they desire, thus having a lesser effect. YET, THIS is when I would bet against home building developers. HOWEVER - it does not subdue my following side note.

The side note I found interesting: I will note that margin debt is at its all time high seemingly peaking. Every time it has reached this sort of pattern, a market dip was soon to follow as in one to two years time... or the old saying of "What goes up, must come down." The shares purchased on loan will likely be repaid with the increase in market value of the equity. The market eats the loss and pays for the correction. The likelihood of recovery could be 8 months, possibly longer depending on the severity. Thus, the overvalued equity is passed on to the market. The question is when will this come down back to reality? Being the market's value is deemed as overvalued by many basic fundamental valuation strategies, I believe this is where things will get interesting. Maybe the housing crash creates a ripple effect. Time will tell.

Difference is volume was more that total shares, and low short interest from where shorts actually covered, and are continually able to do so it seems.

What do you mean? Or are you interpreting my words literally instead of as paraphrasing, ie quick notes.

EDIT: Nevermind. Nice way of saying I need to actually read and not skim... thanks and cheers.

4.1 SHAREHOLDERS including institutional, insiders, corporate and retail investors.

If it's like the last share count, and I suspect it is. This counts include Brokers in the US and Canada. So a rough number of 4.1 m people own around 120 shares on average. THIS IS OVER 80% OF OUTSTANDING SHARES. This does not include people who are with brokers in other countries around the world. I would assume the other 20% are institutional and insiders. Just twiddling my thumbs trying wrap my head around this. I am assuming the CEO is speaking from hard data. 492m divided by 0.8 to get the total being held elsewhere. This tells me the total number shares they have counted. I subtracted the shares on loan to this number because who knows right?... the numbers do not match... I see discrepancy that favors my position. I hold.

Now I do not see them as being able to hits GME numbers, due to volume which makes me assume alot of fishy shite. I do not know how many of the 4m have liquidated. I believe at minimum ~50% have not. I am still processing.. but I see higher than ~$50 in the future

quote:

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hold RIDE

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and that all you can say about that? LOL I know the feeling... I have a couple like that.

Absolutely. This is always the case with the bond scenario at hand.

This post was more of less my speculation at what I think is to come in my eyes, as well as get some input from others viewpoint.

Just my two cents... Let me know what you think and interject anything you have to add to this. This piece is a mere matter of opinion. This is not financial advice nor am I a financial advisor. I am just someone transitioning back to normal stock plays from Covid restrictions being lifted and last year's plays for the dip having played out with liquidity on the side lines. Any feedback is appreciated. I am interested to see other thoughts.

I believe the 2021 Market is heavily overvalued. But there is always money to made somewhere.

Root Cause of overvaluation: Stimulus, governmental supplemental spending, interest rates, Feds Printing and inflation (due to free money, shortages and restrictions)

*** Current Inflation ***
People Hedged by Precious Metals and Real Estate, which creates bubbles for all of the above due to higher prices.

*** Low Interest ***
Low interest rates to speed the economic recovery and continue expansion. Low Interest rates also caused an increase in home buying. This coupled with the rapidly increasing prices of various commodities leads to people buying the same houses at the higher prices with their same income. Thus, they are overleveraging. Banks are already exposed to the risks, and are taking more risks.

There is 3.4 Million homes in May – Mortgages at least 30 days past due or in foreclosure. I am attempting to locate this report again from HUD - I believe. The high home values and unstable times make me believe people are likely buying houses they can not afford with the inability to refinance loans due to depreciation once the inflation stabilizes somewhat.

Thus, I am speculating there is a Housing crash likely. I believe it may sustainable though due to high demand to off-set the high supply. This crash does not help the corporate builders and developers! I am betting against corporate developers with PUTs for 2023 – IF THERE IS NO INFRASTRUCTURE BILL PASSED.

*** The Feds and Government ***
The Government spending to stimulate the economy is great, but it also raises inflation. There is the high potential of increasing taxes with current administration for other reasons, but it helps to counter inflation and spending by removing "free money" from the economy. We also know the Feds have been printing insane amounts. When I refer to free money, I am referring to the additional funds created by the Feds and Government in order to attempt to stabilize the economy.

Nevertheless, the economy is still somewhat stagnant due to weariness and shortages of supplies/labor. I am expecting infrastructure stimulus package, as a to counter the free money approach, to help stabilize the economy for jobs and new economic growth, which kicks the market crash trash can down the road that some are waiting for. Thus, wages rise to allow workers to afford the pricing of current items. I also am expecting commodities to stabilize somewhat as a result...


*** Interest Rates ***
I believe the Feds likely to raise the interest rates to counter inflation, if they see the reverse repos aren't as successful as they had hoped. Banks, brokerages and insurance companies fair this storm rather well. Yet, People with flexible rate mortgages and loans may wet the bed. It will not harm anyone people with seemingly stable jobs as well as fixed interest rates on their debt as much.


*** THUS A NEW BUBBLE BEGINS ***
1) Retail Recovers
2) Finance Booms from Higher interest rates
--(A) Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Lemonade?
3) real estate booms
--(A) Furniture and Appliances revenue boom (Maybe Whirlpool?)
--(B) Real estate operations boom (Zillow, Opendoor and Offerpad)
--(C) Commercial Real Estate Recovers as (Any potential picks?)
4) Auto manufacturing booms
--(A) Electric Vehicles (Ford, Workhorse, Nikola, Lucid, and Lordstown)
6) Chip Shortage Continues, Even HIGHER REVENUES as this has became its own commodity. (Nvidia, AMD, Intel, ASX, ASML)
7) Tech relevant to self-driving cars booms (Blackberry, Alphabet, Apple, etc)
8) Green Tech/Utilities Booms with current admin’s policies (Any recommendations?)
9) Oil and plastics prices rising (Shell, Exxon, Dupont, Dow and Chevron to make record profits again)
10) Travel and Vacation Booms (ABNB, Cruise Lines, Airlines, Vail Resorts)
11) 5G Tech gains and expansions continue
--A) Nokia manufactures 5G equipment now, and has potential to replace its China-based Competitor,