quote:
PPR. I think Gainwell is going to catch a ton of checkdowns from Hurts. I also think they'll scheme plays specifically to get him the ball (screens, swings, line up in slot, etc). I admit this is a bit of a reach but I've been high on Gainwell for awhile. I could easily see him routinely putting up numbers like Antonio Gibson did last year when Alex Smith was the QB.

Do you think Miles Sanders is just a non-factor or something? Or just think Gainwell is good enough to beat him out straight up? I think Gainwell is competing with Boston Scott for that role, not Sanders. I get making Gainwell a priority in the 2nd round, but man, I can't get on board with a 5th rounder over a top 6 pick. The difference in hit rate and amount of opportunities the respective teams will give them is HUGE.

As far as the checkdowns from Hurts, I think that's an interesting hypothesis. On one hand, dynamic running QBs often check down less because a QB scramble will pick up more yards than a checkdown (Lamar is a prime example of this). But one of the main knocks on Hurts coming out, and I didn't see much that disproved this during his 3 full games, is that Hurts wants to see guys open before he throws. We know that doesn't happen all that frequently in the NFL, so that could lead to him holding the ball and funneling it short once pressure arrives. In his 3 full games, he had the following results targeting RBs:

Cowboys- 6 RB targets on 34 targeted pass attempts
Cards- 3 RB targets on 40 targeted pass attempts
Saints- 6 RB targets on 26 targeted pass attempts

I have the leaguewide target rate for running backs as about 15% of targets, so he actually targeted running backs right in line with the leaguewide average. We'll see how that holds moving in 2021 over a full season.