re: Crazy construction materials news I learned today

My information is location specific and I can't speak to other regions in the country. I am a manufacturer of building materials, fabricated glass and aluminum specifically, and I serve middle Tennessee, Southern Kentucky, and Northern Alabama. My market is red hot and has been for close to a decade now, which is why I can't speak to other locations.

Float glass prices went up 8-10ish% back in December, which corresponded to about a 12% increase on the final price of fabricated glass products, such as shower doors and insulating glass. Glass supply has generally been pretty good. There's been a couple hiccups, but nothing like we had a few years back when there was a worldwide glass shortage. I luckily have options since it's a global commodity. China, Europe, Israel/Turkey, and US can all get me glass. I prefer to buy "local," but I have been getting a little more imported because of domestic supply lead times and also decreasing domestic quality.

Aluminum is where it gets tricky. Storefront and curtainwall metals are getting longer and longer lead times. What used to be a week is now 4+ weeks. God help you if you have custom doors. The price has gone up about 7% or so in the past year, so not terrible. Our industry is used to getting aluminum orders a week after ordering, so that mentality is having to change. We had some push-back on longer lead times at first, but glass companies and GCs are finally starting to understand as they see this problem industry-wide.

In addition to manufacturing, I also do installation of both residential and commercial glass. I foresee no slowdown in residential work. Frankly, I can't keep up. If you would have asked me 18 months ago if I could get any busier, I'd have had laughed at you because I didn't think I could handle any more. Shows how wrong I was.

I am seeing a slowdown in commercial construction in late spring/early summer. In talking with people smarter than myself, it seems it will be a short slowdown due to architects and clients slowing down right at the start of covid. Just sort of a lull in plans getting produced and clients pulling the trigger.

On a personal anecdotal level, I bought a house five years ago. At the time I thought I was making a mistake because I couldn't see how our local housing market was sustainable. Fast forward to now and my house has gone from $250k to $400k in value and it shows no sign of letting off the gas. Houses are still going for sale and getting multiple cash bids over asking price on the same day. It's stupid. For better or worse, Nashville is hot. It's great for business, but I'm still undecided whether it's good for the city I used to know.