re: How do you think LSU basketball finishes the season?

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However they finish, avoiding the 8-9 game is the only chance of making a run in the tourney.

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I guess it depends on what is considered a "run"

Eight seeds have made 6 Final Four appearances. That is MORE than 7, 9, 10, 11 seeds. The same amount as 6 seeds. And only 2 less than #5 seeds.

The burden of an 8 seed is that your first round game is against a team equally as good. 8 seeds only have a 52% winning % in the opening round. Then, if you win you are 99% likely to face a #1 seed. In those games 8 seeds have only won 20% of the time. But.....

If you can slay the dragon (1 seed) early something magical happens. 8 seeds have WINNING records vs. 4, 5, AND 2 seeds (the most likely opponents in the second week). To the contrary, 7, 10, and 11 seeds (while slightly more likely to get out of the first weekend) have LOSING records vs. 2, 3, and 1 seeds (the most likely opponents in the second week)

So if a "run" is simply just making it out of the first weekend then you're right. Avoiding the 8/9 matchup is a more probable path for that kind of "run". But, if you want to think bigger, statistically being an 8 seed is better.

It is NEVER a high probability of beating a #1 seed in the 2nd round. They are, of course, one of the four best teams in the nation. But there might be a little advantage to catching that #1 on one day's rest with virtually no time to scout you.