re: So were votes really switch from Trump to Biden via Italy?

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You have a link to that?

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For the 2020 general election the NEP will be reporting the status of the vote count as a percentage of
total expected vote at all levels – statewide, by congressional district, and by county. Total expected
vote is the best estimate made by the NEP based upon all information that is available at the time.
These estimates will be updated as we receive election results on election night and beyond.

At the beginning of Election Day the total expected vote estimates are based upon the trends in mail
and early voting reported by the states. Additionally, we use overall turnout trends that are anticipated
based upon pre-election telephone surveys measuring voters’ expectation for participating in the
election. The NEP also uses information about the growth in voting eligible population and voter
registration in each state and expectations from state and local election officials as well.

As we receive partial vote returns on election night we will be revising these estimates. Also, many
states and counties provide us with estimates of the outstanding vote yet to be reported and we
incorporate that information in our total expected vote estimates. Once enough counties in a state
have reached final or near-final reporting of their vote counts we will use the turnouts in those counties
to revise the estimate of total expected vote from similar counties in that state.

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