re: What's up with Biden being up two in Ohio on Rasmussen

quote:

---

A FEW FACTS:

Per RealClearPolitics.com, the last six polls (Sept/Oct) in Iowa show: Tie, Biden+2, Biden+5, Trump+3, Biden+3, Tie
RCP IOWA Average: Trump +0.5

the last four polls (Sept/Oct) in Ohio show: Biden+1, Biden+1, Trump+4, Tie
RCP OHIO Average: Biden +1.2

More facts:
- both states voted TWICE for Obama
- Iowa had the largest swing of any state from Dem in 2012 to R in 2016 (5.8% win for Obama to 9.4% for Trump)
- Ohio had the second-largest swing from Dem in '12 to R in '16 (3.0% win for Obama to 8.1% for Trump)
- that is a four-year, 15.2 percentage point swing to Trump/Republicans for Iowa
- and a four-year, 11.1 percentage point swing to Trump/Republicans for Ohio


OPINION/QUESTION:
I live in Ohio, and travel the state often.. I highly, HIGHLY doubt that Trump has lost enough support here to represent a 9.3 point swing back to Democrat.

Why should I believe Iowa, in four years, has eroded the unprecedent swing towards Trump into an 8.9 point turn towards Biden?

The 'Shy Trump Voter' - if he/she shows up - will surely give President Trump four more years.

---