quote:
If you decide to go for two and fail, then the game's over right there because you're not getting the ball back twice with 3 minutes left in the game.

It just depends on how much time is left. 10 minutes left? Yeah, whatever, it doesn't really seem like it matters that much in the long run because you're probably gonna get the ball back enough times to tie/take the lead anyway.

It’s like I’m taking crazy pills.

I’d you fail on the 2 point conversation AT ANY POINT, you’ll need another possession to win. Knowing that information as soon possible is better for your chance of winning. Plain and simple.

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Posted by castorinho

13623 posts

Member since Nov 2010

82099 posts

Posted on 9/22/20 at 3:18 pm to slackster

You might want to look at the 538 article top page 3

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Posted by NawlinsTiger9

Where the mongooses roam

Member since Jan 2009

35048 posts

Posted on 9/22/20 at 4:54 pm to slackster

If assuming the success of the 2 point conversion, then technically it doesn't matter when you try it.

If we're assuming the failure of the 2 point conversion - which is kinda what this whole thread is about, I suppose - then I'd always rather fail with time left to adjust.

Failing on the 2nd TD seems infinitely more "deflating" since you probably just flat out lose if you miss it.

Fail on the first TD and your probability of win drops like a stone, sure, but at least you know what you need now.

I think we as fans always assume it's deflating because we feel deflated and we project that onto paid professionals.

This post was edited on 9/22/20 at 4:55 pm

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