re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?

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let’s preface that. It’s better until about 9:00 left in the fourth quarter. Any later, and it’s simply too late in the game to risk being down by two scores

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IT DOESNT MATTER HOW MUCH TIME IS LEFT

You aren’t “risking being down two scores”, you’re finding out if you’ll need an extra possession as early as possible. If you miss after scoring the second TD, you’re STILL DOWN A SCORE but have now played yourself into a position where you may not be able to do anything meaningful about it.