re: Beta - Downgraded to TD - Now Short Break in Storms or Season Over?

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I thought that thing was moving southwest?

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If you track it back to the disturbance from last week? It moved from the far eastern Gulf to south of Louisiana and then down into that area. I'm not sure if this will be remnants of that or just another homebrew system. It will be tricky setup.



The system looks to potentially be in the vicinity of the yellow circle in the 6-10 day range, if it forms. That could be an area of weak steering. Models are showing a ridge over the top and the Atlantic ridge nosing into the WCAB. Will there be any small disturbances under the northern ridge to lift a system out? Will the ridge in the WCAB be strong enough to push this into Mexico? For this time of year, climo is sort of a mixed bag with some systems coming out of the BOC and others getting pushed into Mexico.