re: Here’s some evidence that certain reporters want more testing so that things look worse

Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:48 am to the808bass

Posted by longwayfromLA

NYC

Member since Nov 2007

3331 posts

Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:48 am to the808bass

quote:
Viruses go up and then they go down.

Maybe. No reason to believe this wont' go up again.

quote:
I don’t expect any of it will be as serious on the scale New York’s was.

Neither do I. What happen in NY was the virus running completely wild in a dense area with no mitigation efforts plus importing it nursing homes.

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The virus will move through the population and will then subside.

This is the part I continue to challenge. Other places in the world have managed to skip this part. Why can't we?

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The bigger question is will this be around two years from now. I tend to doubt it.

I think it's around forever. But we'll have treatments, vaccines , etc. so it won't be as big a deal. But who knows...

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Posted by the808bass

The Lou

Member since Oct 2012

111595 posts

Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:53 am to longwayfromLA

quote:
This is the part I continue to challenge. Other places in the world have managed to skip this part. Why can't we?

Part of it could be genetic. Part of it could be a difference in baseline population health. We have a huge concentration of people with diabetes and heart disease. Those are people who are very susceptible to negative health outcomes.

And we are testing more people.

The original Imperial College paper said that a complete shutdown of the country would result in 50% fewer deaths. Do you disagree with that? If so, why?

So if there is a greater than 50% difference in our death rate and another country’s death rate, it would follow (if we believe the epidemiologists) that the difference isn’t in the non-pharmaceutical interventions.

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Posted by DMAN1968