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Started By
Message
re: Here’s some evidence that certain reporters want more testing so that things look worse
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:08 am to Athanatos
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:08 am to Athanatos
quote:
Do you have data to support NY lockdowns being stricter or more effective than California’s? If not, how do you explain CA spiking but not NY? How is that easier to believe than that Farr’s Law has just reached the end of its cycle in NY?
Yes. Yesterday the case positivity rate for California was about 8 times that of New York. California is really big, I suspect a few places with California are driving the an outsized number of cases. I'm disinclined to believe that the disease has run its course in NY because the data suggests only 25% of of the population has had the disease which is not enough to confer herd immunity. I am open to the possibility that there other factors driving differentiating in these outcomes.
What I feel comfortable saying is that S. Korea and California have about the same population. California will have more people die of COVID by Wednesday as S. Korea has had since this whole thing began. Can you explain why that is?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:36 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
California will have more people die of COVID
No we wont. Stop making up shite
This is all about closing down the Convention and muh mail in ballots
Posted on 7/13/20 at 4:07 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:
Yes. Yesterday the case positivity rate for California was about 8 times that of New York. California is really big, I suspect a few places with California are driving the an outsized number of cases. I'm disinclined to believe that the disease has run its course in NY because the data suggests only 25% of of the population has had the disease which is not enough to confer herd immunity. I am open to the possibility that there other factors driving differentiating in these outcomes.
What I feel comfortable saying is that S. Korea and California have about the same population. California will have more people die of COVID by Wednesday as S. Korea has had since this whole thing began. Can you explain why that is?
That's backwards and fails to account for whether New York having already gone through its first wave is accountable for New York's current condition. Using this logic, Sweden's lockdown is more effective than California's even though Sweden is not under lockdown.
ETA: My reference to Farr's Law is not to herd immunity. We can debate the proper threshold for population-level immunity, but under Farr's Law, why does a new virus follow a bell curve pattern? Because the number of susceptible persons lowers as the virus makes its way through a population. Those persons have gone from susceptible to infected to recovered (or dead). Accordingly, the higher prevalence in a population, the harder the virus must work to keep its R0 up. New York's prevalence is significantly higher than California's, so if you assume an equivalent lockdown effect, then it would make sense for California to still have a higher infection rate, correct?
This post was edited on 7/13/20 at 4:12 pm
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