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1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

Adv Biden

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2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

Adv Trump

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3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Adv Trump

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4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Adv Trump

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5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

Ehh hard to say advantage Biden when this is pandemic related, so I will say TBD

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6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

Adv Trump

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7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

Another one TBD, this is pretty subjective. Dems have not really done themselves any policy favors - leaning to Adv Trump with the Socialism, protests and violence driving Moderates away from the Dems

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8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

Adv Biden

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9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

"scandal" is a pretty subjective word but to accomodate the media attacks let's say Adv Biden

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10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

None to date - Adv Trump

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11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

this is subjective to whether we see killing Qasem Soleimani NK, Iran, SA, ISIS etc as big enough wins

TBD

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12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Trump has charisma if you like him and is polarizing if you dont

this is super subjective

TBD

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13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

the challenger has onset dementia

Adv Trump

I see how Lichtman skews his results, he has some keys that are so subjective that he probably rides polls and waits until the absolute last second to post his "prediction"

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Posted by Zach

Gizmonic Institute

Member since May 2005

112796 posts

Posted on 6/24/20 at 12:32 pm to supatigah

8. Uh, the social unrest is being caused from the Democrats. How does that advantage Biden?

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Posted by CGSC Lobotomy

Member since Sep 2011

81389 posts

Posted on 6/24/20 at 5:20 pm to supatigah

1. Party Mandate: If you only count the House, this is a flawed metric. - Biden

2. Contest - Trump

3. Incumbency - Trump

4. Third Party - Trump

5. Short-Term Economy - This one is invalid due to COVID

6. Long-Term Economy - Trump

7. Policy Change - Trump and this is NOT subjective. From the change in policy towards China to the USMCA to the changes to taxes, there have been sweeping policy changes.

8. Social Unrest - Biden, but this might be a huge disadvantage especially if the unrest can be tied to his party.

9. Scandal - Push. Biden is actually tainted with more scandal than Trump is.

10. Foreign/Military Failure - Trump

11. Foreign/Military Success - Trump. Between the killing of Al Baghdadi and the killing of Soulemani, this is not up for debate.

12. Incumbent charisma - Trump and your analytical and observational skills are flawed if you think otherwise.

13. Challenger charisma - Trump

I see NINE of the keys in President Trump's favor and he could flip at least two of them in the coming months.

If you look at these and compare Trump to Clinton in 2016 Trump held between 9-12 of those keys. He STILL hold that same number.

This post was edited on 6/24/20 at 5:25 pm

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