re: Extent of Covid-19 Deaths Failed to Be Captured by Most Countries

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The expected rate is a 4 year trailing average, therefore it excludes covid.

Expected plus covid equals actual.

Again, what’s the problem ?

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There is none.
Here are the graphs super imposed and zeroed at the respective CV19 uptick point.



Notice though blue and red graphs are similar, when zeroed at the inflection, blue leads red on the upslope, and trails on the downslope. I'd theorize the blue upslope adds normal death baseline to the CV19 numbers. While the downslope indicates a change (decline) in the normal death baseline d/t decreased human activity. A trailing baseline average would not indicate the current fall in baseline.