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Message
re: Storm Watch- Gulf- Tropical Depression- Northward Miss. Valley
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:20 pm to Duke
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:20 pm to Duke
quote:
In fairness, the track is very uncertain outside of the first two days.
The NHC should consider some form of confidence forecasting cones. Using the last few years or errors doesn't illustrate the confidence or lack thereof in a particular forecast. The discussion helps, but the masses don't read that kind of thing.
2
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:24 pm to slackster
They need some quantitative way to set the error bars based on model forecasts and then have to explain what that means to the masses. I would love to see what their actual confidence cones would look like, but it's probably better to rely on TV mets and local forecast offices to explain how uncertain it is.
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:31 pm to slackster
quote:
The NHC should consider some form of confidence forecasting cones. Using the last few years or errors doesn't illustrate the confidence or lack thereof in a particular forecast. The discussion helps, but the masses don't read that kind of thing.
Agreed.
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