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re: NOAA Releases 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Posted on 5/21/20 at 11:33 am to
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
62909 posts
Posted on 5/21/20 at 11:33 am to
This is about the equivalent of predicting your favorite NBAbasketball team will score between 90- 120 points in the next game
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12040 posts
Posted on 5/21/20 at 11:40 am to
What I find amusing is when a particular long range model shows a category 4/5 hurricane in the central GOM 268 hours out.

We can’t predict where a cold front boundry will lie in 72 hours. A 72 forecast might have a cold front boundary from St.Louis to Little Rock to Dallas to Austin when in reality the front might be from Nashville to Monroe to lake charles.

Never trust upperlevel features more than 6/8 days out and surface features 5/6 days out.
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